Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
BenficavGIL Vicente
Benfica
GIL Vicente·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%). Benfica and GIL Vicente finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ben / GIL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Benfica down the side and GIL Vicente across. These 96.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 45%.
What we think
- Benfica73% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.45 at BetfairThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 40% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 85% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 9 matches between them averaged 2.8 goals, and 1.4 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 2 of those 9.
Our forecast makes Benfica the most likely of the three results, at 73% (we would not be surprised by anything from 66% to 79%). Most likely is not likely: at 73% this result does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 87%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 67% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Benfica a 87% chance. Our model makes it 73%.
2Market
Open: 87% home · 10% draw · 4% away
Now: 87% home · 10% draw · 4% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Benfica
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
GIL Vicente
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BenficaWWWWD
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Moreirense 4–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Maritimo 3–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Estoril 2–1(xG 2.0–0.4)
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Casa Pia 7–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Academico Viseu 2–2
GIL VicenteLDWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Academico Viseu 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Famalicao 0–0(xG 0.3–0.2)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Casa Pia 2–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Rio Ave 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5.
- Benfica have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Benfica's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Benfica's last 5.
- Benfica kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- GIL Vicente have won 2 of their last 4.
- GIL Vicente have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 0 of GIL Vicente's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of GIL Vicente's last 4.
- GIL Vicente kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Benfica
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
GIL Vicente
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon · Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
- Our model makes Benfica the most likely result at 73%. Most likely is not likely — at 73% it does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 87%.
- How many goals are expected in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
- Benfica line up in a 4-2-3-1, GIL Vicente in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.