Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5
GIL VicentevAcademico Viseu
GIL Vicente
Academico Viseu·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- GIL Vicente40% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes GIL Vicente the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 23% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives GIL Vicente a 41% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 28% draw · 22% away
Now: 41% home · 32% draw · 28% away
Moved −9pp — the market moved away from GIL Vicente
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
GIL Vicente
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Academico Viseu
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GIL VicenteDWW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Famalicao 0–0(xG 0.3–0.2)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Casa Pia 2–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Rio Ave 1–0
Academico ViseuLDLD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v FC Porto 0–3(xG 0.8–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Maritimo 2–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Santa Clara 0–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Benfica 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- GIL Vicente have won 2 of their last 3.
- GIL Vicente have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 0 of GIL Vicente's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of GIL Vicente's last 3.
- GIL Vicente kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 3.
- Academico Viseu have won 0 of their last 4.
- Academico Viseu have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 3 of Academico Viseu's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Academico Viseu's last 4.
- Academico Viseu kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
GIL Vicente
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Academico Viseu
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos · Referee: Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win GIL Vicente vs Academico Viseu?
- Our model makes GIL Vicente the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Academico Viseu?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for GIL Vicente vs Academico Viseu?
- GIL Vicente line up in a 4-2-3-1, Academico Viseu in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.