Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5
Santa ClaravRio Ave
Santa Clara
Rio Ave·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Santa Clara46% · Match result
- Over 1.571% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Santa Clara the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Santa Clara a 49% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 52% home · 28% draw · 20% away
Now: 49% home · 29% draw · 22% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Santa Clara
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Santa Clara
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Rio Ave
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Santa ClaraDWWD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Alverca 1–1(xG 1.4–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Famalicao 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Academico Viseu 1–0
- Mon 10 Aug · H v Nacional 2–2
Rio AveLWLL
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Sporting CP 0–4(xG 0.5–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Estoril 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC Porto 0–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v GIL Vicente 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Santa Clara have won 2 of their last 4.
- Santa Clara have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 1 of Santa Clara's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Santa Clara's last 4.
- Santa Clara kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
- Rio Ave have won 1 of their last 4.
- Rio Ave have scored in 1 of their last 4.
- 1 of Rio Ave's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Rio Ave's last 4.
- Rio Ave kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Santa Clara
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Rio Ave
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada · Referee: Anzhony Rodrigues, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
- Our model makes Santa Clara the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.