Who will win Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

Our model makes Vitória SC the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.

Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

Vitória SC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Casa Pia in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5

Vitória SCvCasa Pia

Sun 6 Sep · 17:00 UTC

0 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Vitória SC54% · Match result
Over 1.574% · Goals
Yes52% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Both teams to score: Yes

Best price 2.08 at MarathonbetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

We make this 52% against a market price of 44% — 8 points of difference.
Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Their last 8 matches between them averaged 2.4 goals, and 1.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Both sides scored in 1 of those 8.

Our forecast makes Vitória SC the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Vitória SC a 64% chance. Our model makes it 54%.

Vitória SCModel 54% [47%–62%]Market 64%

2Market

Open: 63% home · 23% draw · 13% away

Now: 64% home · 23% draw · 13% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Vitória SC

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home54%vs64%−10pp

Draw26%vs23%+3pp

Away20%vs13%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs47%

Under 2.5—vs53%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs73%+1pp

Under 1.526%vs27%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs24%

Under 3.5—vs76%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs44%+8pp

No48%vs56%−8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Vitória SC

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

Casa Pia

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Vitória SCLWLL

Mon 31 Aug · A v SC Braga 0–1(xG 0.2–0.8)
Sun 23 Aug · H v Nacional 1–0
Fri 14 Aug · A v Sporting CP 2–3
Sat 8 Aug · H v Arouca 0–1

Casa PiaLLLL

Sun 30 Aug · H v Moreirense 0–1(xG 0.8–0.3)
Mon 24 Aug · A v GIL Vicente 0–2
Mon 17 Aug · H v Benfica 0–7
Sat 8 Aug · A v Maritimo 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Vitória SC

Vitória SC have won 1 of their last 4.
Vitória SC have scored in 2 of their last 4.
1 of Vitória SC's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Vitória SC's last 4.
Vitória SC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

Casa Pia

Casa Pia have won 0 of their last 4.
Casa Pia have scored in 0 of their last 4.
1 of Casa Pia's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 0 of Casa Pia's last 4.
Casa Pia kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Vitória SC

Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d

Casa Pia

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes · Referee: Gustavo Correia, Portugal

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.

Common questions

Who will win Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: Our model makes Vitória SC the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: Vitória SC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Casa Pia in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.