Who will win Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Our model makes Aberdeen the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 56%.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Aberdeen line up in a 4-1-3-2, Kilmarnock in a 4-1-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Premiership · Regular Season - 6

AberdeenvKilmarnock

Sat 5 Sep · 14:00 UTC

0 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Aberdeen43% · Match result
Over 1.576% · Goals
Yes55% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Aberdeen the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 56%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Aberdeen a 56% chance. Our model makes it 43%.

AberdeenModel 43% [30%–58%]Market 56%

2Market

Open: 56% home · 24% draw · 20% away

Now: 56% home · 24% draw · 20% away

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home43%vs56%−13pp

Draw27%vs24%+3pp

Away30%vs20%+10pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs57%

Under 2.5—vs43%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.576%vs80%−4pp

Under 1.524%vs20%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs35%

Under 3.5—vs65%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes55%vs58%−3pp

No45%vs42%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Aberdeen

Confirmed · 4-1-3-2

No reported absences.

Kilmarnock

Confirmed · 4-1-3-2

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AberdeenLLLW

Wed 2 Sep · A v Celtic 0–3
Sun 30 Aug · H v Rangers 0–1(xG 0.5–1.8)
Sat 8 Aug · A v Dundee 0–2
Sat 1 Aug · H v Heart Of Midlothian 2–1

KilmarnockLLLL

Wed 2 Sep · H v ST Mirren 0–1
Sat 29 Aug · H v Dundee Utd 0–4(xG 1.0–3.5)
Sun 9 Aug · H v Celtic 1–5
Sun 2 Aug · A v ST Johnstone 3–4

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Aberdeen

Aberdeen have won 1 of their last 4.
Aberdeen have scored in 1 of their last 4.
2 of Aberdeen's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Aberdeen's last 4.
Aberdeen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock have won 0 of their last 4.
Kilmarnock have scored in 2 of their last 4.
3 of Kilmarnock's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Kilmarnock's last 4.
Kilmarnock kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Aberdeen

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Kilmarnock

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen · Referee: J. Beaton

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.

Common questions

Who will win Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?: Our model makes Aberdeen the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 56%.
Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?: Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?: Aberdeen line up in a 4-1-3-2, Kilmarnock in a 4-1-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.