Who will win Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?

Our model makes Dundee Utd the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.

Will both teams score in Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?

Dundee Utd line up in a 4-3-3, Falkirk in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Premiership · Regular Season - 6

Dundee UtdvFalkirk

Sat 5 Sep · 14:00 UTC

1 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Dundee Utd39% · Match result
Over 1.576% · Goals
Yes55% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Dundee Utd the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 24% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Dundee Utd a 49% chance. Our model makes it 39%.

Dundee UtdModel 39% [24%–54%]Market 49%

2Market

Open: 49% home · 25% draw · 25% away

Now: 49% home · 25% draw · 25% away

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home39%vs49%−10pp

Draw27%vs25%+2pp

Away34%vs25%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs55%

Under 2.5—vs45%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.576%vs79%−3pp

Under 1.524%vs21%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs33%

Under 3.5—vs67%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes55%vs59%−4pp

No45%vs41%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Dundee Utd

Confirmed · 4-3-3

No reported absences.

Falkirk

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Dundee UtdLWLLD

Wed 2 Sep · A v Motherwell 0–3
Sat 29 Aug · A v Kilmarnock 4–0(xG 3.5–1.0)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Dundee 0–2
Sun 9 Aug · A v Heart Of Midlothian 0–4
Fri 31 Jul · H v Rangers 1–1

FalkirkLLDL

Wed 2 Sep · H v Rangers 1–2
Sat 29 Aug · A v Celtic 1–2(xG 0.5–2.9)
Sun 9 Aug · A v Motherwell 0–0
Sat 1 Aug · H v ST Mirren 0–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Dundee Utd

Dundee Utd have won 1 of their last 5.
Dundee Utd have scored in 2 of their last 5.
3 of Dundee Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Dundee Utd's last 5.
Dundee Utd kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

Falkirk

Falkirk have won 0 of their last 4.
Falkirk have scored in 2 of their last 4.
2 of Falkirk's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Falkirk's last 4.
Falkirk kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Dundee Utd

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

Falkirk

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Tannadice Park, Dundee · Referee: D. McFarlane

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.

Common questions

Who will win Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?: Our model makes Dundee Utd the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
Will both teams score in Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?: Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Dundee Utd vs Falkirk?: Dundee Utd line up in a 4-3-3, Falkirk in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.