Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 7
Lommel UnitedvKV Mechelen
Lommel United
KV Mechelen·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Lommel United and KV Mechelen finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lom / KV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lommel United down the side and KV Mechelen across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- KV Mechelen41% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes KV Mechelen the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lommel United
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
KV Mechelen
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Lommel UnitedLLWWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Union St. Gilloise 0–5
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Club Brugge KV 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Cercle Brugge 1–0(xG 1.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v KVC Westerlo 4–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Charleroi 0–1
KV MechelenLLDLD
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Anderlecht 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v KVC Westerlo 0–4
- Sat 29 Aug · A v RAAL La Louvière 2–2(xG 2.1–2.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Charleroi 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Standard Liege 3–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lommel United have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lommel United have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lommel United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Lommel United's last 5.
- Lommel United kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- KV Mechelen have won 0 of their last 5.
- KV Mechelen have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of KV Mechelen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of KV Mechelen's last 5.
- KV Mechelen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Lommel United
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
KV Mechelen
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Soeverein stadion, Lommel · Referee: W. De Cremer
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Lommel United vs KV Mechelen?
- Our model makes KV Mechelen the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Lommel United vs KV Mechelen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Lommel United vs KV Mechelen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lommel United vs KV Mechelen?
- Lommel United line up in a 4-4-2, KV Mechelen in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.