Liga MX · Apertura - 9
PueblavAtlante FC
Puebla
Atlante FC·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–20.9–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (12%), then 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Puebla and Atlante FC finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Pue / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Puebla down the side and Atlante FC across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 30%.
What we think
- Atlante FC57% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Atlante FC
Best price 2.99 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 57% against a market price of 32% — 25 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- The price has moved 4.1% away from Puebla since it opened.
Our forecast makes Atlante FC the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 82%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Puebla the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (53%).
For comparison, the market gives Puebla a 41% chance. Our model makes it 19%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 27% draw · 28% away
Now: 41% home · 27% draw · 32% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Puebla
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Puebla
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Atlante FC
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PueblaLWLWW
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Toluca 0–1
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Necaxa 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Club America 0–2(xG 0.8–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Santos Laguna 3–2
- Tue 18 Aug · A v CF Pachuca 3–2
Atlante FCLDDLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v CF Pachuca 0–3
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Atlas 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Leon 1–1(xG 1.1–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Tigres UANL 0–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Toluca 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Puebla have won 3 of their last 5.
- Puebla have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Puebla's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Puebla's last 5.
- Puebla kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Atlante FC have won 0 of their last 5.
- Atlante FC have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Atlante FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atlante FC's last 5.
- Atlante FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Puebla
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atlante FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Cuauhtemoc, Puebla · Referee: Aldo Ballesteros Barba, Mexico
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Puebla vs Atlante FC?
- Our model makes Atlante FC the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market instead favours Puebla at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Atlante FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Puebla vs Atlante FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Puebla vs Atlante FC?
- Puebla line up in a 4-1-4-1, Atlante FC in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.