Premier League · Regular Season - 5
TottenhamvAston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Tottenham and Aston Villa finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Tot / Ast | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Tottenham down the side and Aston Villa across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 78% against 79%.
What we think
- Tottenham38% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Tottenham the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (55%).
For comparison, the market gives Tottenham a 49% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 26% draw · 25% away
Now: 49% home · 26% draw · 24% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Tottenham
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Tottenham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. M. Sarr — out (Muscle Injury)
- Richarlison — out (Inactive)
- M. Mudryk — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Maddison — out (Knock)
- Savinho — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- M. Kudus — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. van de Ven — out (Injury)
- X. Simons — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Porro — out (Inactive)
- W. Odobert — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Kulusevski — out (Knee Injury)
Aston Villa
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Torres — out (Injury)
- I. Maatsen — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Bizot — out (Back Injury)
- Alysson — out (Injury)
- M. Cash — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Goretzka — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Madjo — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Bailey — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Harwood-Bellis — doubtful (Injury)
- I. Mbaye — out (Inactive)
- T. Abraham — out (Injury)
- O. Watkins — out (Inactive)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- Joao Gomes — out (Red Card)
- A. Onana — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Manzambi — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TottenhamDDLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Everton 0–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Nottingham Forest 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Newcastle 0–2(xG 1.0–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Brentford 0–3
- Sun 24 May · H v Everton 1–0
Aston VillaLDLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Nottingham Forest 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Hull City 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Arsenal 0–1(xG 0.3–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Brighton 0–4(xG 0.3–3.8)
- Sun 24 May · A v Manchester City 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Tottenham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Tottenham have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 1 of Tottenham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Tottenham's last 5.
- Tottenham kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5.
- Aston Villa have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Aston Villa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Aston Villa's last 5.
- Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Tottenham have won 5, Aston Villa 5, with 0 drawn.
- Tottenham W–D–L
- 5–0–5
- Over 2.5
- 8 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Aston Villa 1–2 Tottenham
- Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 2–0 Tottenham
- Tottenham 4–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–4 Tottenham
- Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 2–1 Tottenham
- Tottenham 0–2 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–4 Tottenham
- Tottenham 2–1 Aston Villa
7Context
Tottenham
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Aston Villa
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · Referee: Samuel Barrott, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
- Our model makes Tottenham the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
- Tottenham's reported absences and doubts include P. M. Sarr, Richarlison, M. Mudryk, J. Maddison and 7 others. Aston Villa's include P. Torres, I. Maatsen, M. Bizot, Alysson and 12 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Tottenham vs Aston Villa?
- Tottenham line up in a 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Aston Villa?
- In their last 10 meetings, Tottenham have won 5, Aston Villa 5, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.