Liga MX · Apertura - 9
FC JuarezvTigres UANL
FC Juarez
Tigres UANL·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). FC Juarez and Tigres UANL finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Tig | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Juarez down the side and Tigres UANL across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 32%.
What we think
- Tigres UANL49% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Tigres UANL the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (54%).
For comparison, the market gives Tigres UANL a 51% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 21% home · 25% draw · 54% away
Now: 23% home · 26% draw · 51% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Tigres UANL
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Juarez
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Tigres UANL
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC JuarezLLLLL
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Santos Laguna 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v CF Pachuca 0–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Toluca 0–4
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Club America 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Monterrey 1–6
Tigres UANLDDDWL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Monterrey 0–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Necaxa 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Santos Laguna 0–0(xG 1.3–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Atlante FC 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Atlas 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Juarez have won 0 of their last 5.
- FC Juarez have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Juarez's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Juarez's last 5.
- FC Juarez kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Tigres UANL have won 1 of their last 5.
- Tigres UANL have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Tigres UANL's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Tigres UANL's last 5.
- Tigres UANL kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Juarez
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Tigres UANL
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez, Ciudad Juarez · Referee: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL?
- Our model makes Tigres UANL the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL?
- FC Juarez line up in a 4-2-3-1, Tigres UANL in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.