Liga MX · Apertura - 9
Atletico San LuisvNecaxa
Atletico San Luis
Necaxa·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Atletico San Luis and Necaxa finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Atl / Nec | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atletico San Luis down the side and Necaxa across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 34%.
What we think
- Atletico San Luis48% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atletico San Luis the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 56% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Atletico San Luis a 43% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 26% draw · 30% away
Now: 43% home · 26% draw · 31% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Necaxa
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atletico San Luis
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Necaxa
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atletico San LuisLLWDL
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Leon 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Guadalajara Chivas 0–3
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Monterrey 3–1(xG 1.3–2.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v CF Pachuca 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Club America 0–3
NecaxaLDLDL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Puebla 0–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Tigres UANL 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Cruz Azul 1–3(xG 0.4–1.9)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1
- Tue 18 Aug · H v Leon 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atletico San Luis have won 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico San Luis have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atletico San Luis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atletico San Luis's last 5.
- Atletico San Luis kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Necaxa have won 0 of their last 5.
- Necaxa have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Necaxa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Necaxa's last 5.
- Necaxa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Atletico San Luis
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Necaxa
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Libertad Financiera · Referee: Katia García
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?
- Our model makes Atletico San Luis the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?
- Atletico San Luis line up in a 3-4-2-1, Necaxa in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.