Championship · Regular Season - 8
CardiffvCharlton
Cardiff
Charlton·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Cardiff and Charlton finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Car / Cha | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Cardiff down the side and Charlton across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 35%.
What we think
- Cardiff48% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cardiff the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 56%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 58% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Cardiff a 56% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 55% home · 24% draw · 22% away
Now: 56% home · 23% draw · 21% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Cardiff
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cardiff
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Colwill — out (Health problems)
- I. Davies — out (Injury)
- K. Bielik — doubtful (Inactive)
- G. Osho — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Chambers — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Lawlor — out (Muscle Injury)
- W. Fish — out (Hernia)
Charlton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Chalobah — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Koumetio — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Kelman — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Edwards — out (Ankle Injury)
- D. McNamara — out (Red Card)
- C. Sichenje — out (Knee Injury)
- W. Mannion — out (Shoulder Injury)
- M. Godden — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Burke — out (Inactive)
- K. Ramsay — out (Ankle Injury)
- T. Ouma — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Mbick — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CardiffLDLLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Bolton 0–1
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Stoke City 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Portsmouth 0–2
- Wed 2 Sep · A v QPR 1–2(xG 0.6–2.1)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 2–2(xG 2.3–1.5)
CharltonDDLDW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Portsmouth 0–0
- Wed 9 Sep · H v QPR 0–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Stoke City 0–4
- Wed 2 Sep · A v West Brom 1–1(xG 0.4–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Preston 1–0(xG 0.9–0.9)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cardiff have won 0 of their last 5.
- Cardiff have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Cardiff's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Cardiff's last 5.
- Cardiff kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Charlton have won 1 of their last 5.
- Charlton have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Charlton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Charlton's last 5.
- Charlton kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Cardiff
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Charlton
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff · Referee: Elliot Bell, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Cardiff vs Charlton?
- Our model makes Cardiff the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 56%.
- How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Charlton?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Charlton?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Cardiff vs Charlton?
- Cardiff's reported absences and doubts include R. Colwill, I. Davies, K. Bielik, G. Osho and 3 others. Charlton's include N. Chalobah, B. Koumetio, C. Kelman, J. Edwards and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cardiff vs Charlton?
- Cardiff line up in a 4-2-3-1, Charlton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.