Championship · Regular Season - 8
Stoke CityvSheffield Utd
Stoke City
Sheffield Utd·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Stoke City and Sheffield Utd finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Sto / She | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Stoke City down the side and Sheffield Utd across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 50%.
What we think
- Sheffield Utd41% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sheffield Utd the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Stoke City the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Stoke City a 41% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Now: 41% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Stoke City
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. Lawal — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Cresswell — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Gallagher — out (Injury)
- J. Tchamadeu — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Ampah — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Ingelsson — out (Injury)
- B. Gibson — out (Head Injury)
- L. Cisse — out (Knock)
Sheffield Utd
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- F. Seriki — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Burrows — out (Injury)
- S. McCallum — doubtful (Inactive)
- R. One — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Chong — out (Injury)
- J. Shackleton — out (Foot Injury)
- K. Phillips — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Stoke CityWDWWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Watford 2–1
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Cardiff 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Charlton 4–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Norwich 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Wolves 1–4(xG 0.9–2.6)
Sheffield UtdLWLWD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Wolves 0–1
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Blackburn 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Norwich 1–3
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Bolton 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Cardiff 2–2(xG 1.5–2.3)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5.
- Stoke City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Stoke City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Stoke City's last 5.
- Stoke City kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sheffield Utd have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sheffield Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sheffield Utd's last 5.
- Sheffield Utd kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Stoke City
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Sheffield Utd
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent · Referee: Tim Robinson, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd?
- Our model makes Sheffield Utd the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Stoke City at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd?
- Stoke City's reported absences and doubts include B. Lawal, A. Cresswell, S. Gallagher, J. Tchamadeu and 4 others. Sheffield Utd's include F. Seriki, H. Burrows, S. McCallum, R. One and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd?
- Stoke City line up in a 3-4-3, Sheffield Utd in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.