Championship · Regular Season - 8
MillwallvWest Ham
Millwall
West Ham·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Millwall and West Ham finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mil / Wes | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Millwall down the side and West Ham across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 38%.
What we think
- West Ham48% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 70% against a market price of 62% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.3 goals, and 2.5 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- 23 players reported unavailable — 16 for Millwall, 7 for West Ham.
Our forecast makes West Ham the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 60% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives West Ham a 53% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 22% home · 25% draw · 53% away
Now: 22% home · 25% draw · 53% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Millwall
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Lisbie — out (Injury)
- L. Jensen — out (Injury)
- T. Crama — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Esse — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Leonard — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Luongo — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Sykes — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Metcalfe — out (Red Card)
- C. De Norre — out (Injury)
- J. Coburn — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Cundle — out (Inactive)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Servais — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Mazou-Sacko — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Ivanovic — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Doughty — out (Hamstring Injury)
West Ham
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- J. Veltman — out (Injury)
- T. Castellanos — out (Injury)
- A. Areola — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Soucek — out (Ankle Injury)
- Pablo — out (Health problems)
- K. Mavropanos — out (Inactive)
- K. Lamadrid — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MillwallDLWLL
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Middlesbrough 2–2
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Blackburn 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bolton 4–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Wrexham 0–3(xG 0.2–0.9)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Southampton 1–5(xG 1.1–3.2)
West HamWWWWD
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Wrexham 6–0
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Bolton 3–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Derby 3–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Wolves 4–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Watford 1–1(xG 0.7–1.3)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5.
- Millwall have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Millwall's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Millwall's last 5.
- Millwall kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- West Ham have won 4 of their last 5.
- West Ham have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of West Ham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of West Ham's last 5.
- West Ham kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Millwall
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
West Ham
Rest: 8 days · 3 matches in 14d
The Den, London · Referee: Paul Tierney, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Millwall vs West Ham?
- Our model makes West Ham the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in Millwall vs West Ham?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Millwall vs West Ham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Millwall vs West Ham?
- Millwall's reported absences and doubts include K. Lisbie, L. Jensen, T. Crama, R. Esse and 12 others. West Ham's include J. Veltman, T. Castellanos, A. Areola, T. Soucek and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Millwall vs West Ham?
- Millwall line up in a 4-2-3-1, West Ham in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.