Championship · Regular Season - 8
WrexhamvSouthampton
Wrexham
Southampton·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Wrexham and Southampton finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Wre / Sou | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Wrexham down the side and Southampton across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Southampton43% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Southampton the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Wrexham
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- O. Rathbone — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Cacace — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Cleworth — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Sheaf — out (Inactive)
- N. Broadhead — out (Inactive)
- S. Revan — out (Hamstring Injury)
- G. Thomason — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Windass — out (Calf Injury)
Southampton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Akachukwu — doubtful (Injury)
- T. Harwood-Bellis — out (Injury)
- C. Jander — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
WrexhamLDDWL
- Fri 11 Sep · A v West Ham 0–6
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Burnley 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Swansea 0–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Millwall 3–0(xG 0.9–0.2)
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Birmingham 1–2(xG 1.4–1.6)
SouthamptonWWDDW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Bristol City 4–1
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Swansea 3–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Lincoln 1–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Birmingham 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Millwall 5–1(xG 3.2–1.1)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Wrexham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Wrexham have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Wrexham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Wrexham's last 5.
- Wrexham kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Southampton have won 3 of their last 5.
- Southampton have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Southampton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Southampton's last 5.
- Southampton kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Wrexham
Rest: 8 days · 3 matches in 14d
Southampton
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Racecourse Ground, Wrexham · Referee: Gavin Ward, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Wrexham vs Southampton?
- Our model makes Southampton the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Southampton?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Southampton?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Wrexham vs Southampton?
- Wrexham's reported absences and doubts include O. Rathbone, L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, B. Sheaf and 4 others. Southampton's include R. Akachukwu, T. Harwood-Bellis, C. Jander. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Wrexham vs Southampton?
- Wrexham line up in a 3-4-2-1, Southampton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.