Championship · Regular Season - 8
PortsmouthvBlackburn
Portsmouth
Blackburn·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Portsmouth and Blackburn finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Por / Bla | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Portsmouth down the side and Blackburn across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Portsmouth40% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Portsmouth the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Portsmouth
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Bursik — out (Calf Injury)
- K. Anderson — out (Muscle Injury)
- Marezi — out (Calf Injury)
- L. Brooke-Smith — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Farrell — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Murphy — out (Injury)
- H. Blair — out (Illness)
- T. Waddingham — out (Ankle Injury)
- F. Umeh — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Pack — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Ogilvie — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Kosznovszky — out (Knee Injury)
Blackburn
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- M. Jorgensen — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Y. Ribeiro — out (Injury)
- A. Forshaw — out (Injury)
- S. Wharton — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- H. Pickering — out (Inactive)
- M. Litherland — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Atcheson — out (Red Card)
- Y. Ohashi — out (Inactive)
- L. Miller — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Kargbo — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. De Neve — out (Injury)
- M. Baradji — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PortsmouthDWLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Charlton 0–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Cardiff 2–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Derby 0–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Bristol City 1–2(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Lincoln 3–1
BlackburnWLLDL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Millwall 3–1
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Sheffield Utd 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Preston 1–2
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Lincoln 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v QPR 1–2(xG 1.0–1.3)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 5.
- Portsmouth have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Portsmouth's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Portsmouth's last 5.
- Portsmouth kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Blackburn have won 1 of their last 5.
- Blackburn have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Blackburn's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Blackburn's last 5.
- Blackburn kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Portsmouth
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Blackburn
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Fratton Park, Portsmouth · Referee: John Busby, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
- Our model makes Portsmouth the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
- Portsmouth's reported absences and doubts include J. Bursik, K. Anderson, Marezi, L. Brooke-Smith and 8 others. Blackburn's include M. Jorgensen, Y. Ribeiro, A. Forshaw, S. Wharton and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
- Portsmouth line up in a 4-2-3-1, Blackburn in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.