Championship · Regular Season - 8
BurnleyvDerby
Burnley
Derby·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%). Burnley and Derby finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bur / Der | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Burnley down the side and Derby across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Burnley48% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Burnley the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Burnley
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- A. Ramsey — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Mejbri — out (Inactive)
- J. Bruun Larsen — out (Injury)
- D. Satpaev — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Foster — out (Inactive)
- O. Sonne — doubtful (Inactive)
- Lucas Pires — out (Inactive)
- J. Laurent — out (Red Card)
- B. Humphreys — out (Inactive)
- J. Cullen — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Beyer — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Barnes — out (Injury)
- J. Banel — out (Injury)
- E. Agyei — out (Injury)
Derby
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- L. Travis — out (Leg Injury)
- C. Morris — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Widell Zetterstrom — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Meister — out (Injury)
- F. Bilbija — out (Back Injury)
- C. Forsyth — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Brewster — out (Injury)
- M. Clarke — out (Calf Injury)
- S. Szmodics — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Murkin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- P. Agyemang — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BurnleyLDLDL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Swansea 1–3
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Wrexham 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bristol City 1–2
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 1–1(xG 0.6–1.2)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Norwich 1–4(xG 0.9–1.9)
DerbyLLLWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Birmingham 1–2
- Wed 9 Sep · H v West Brom 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v West Ham 0–3
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Portsmouth 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Swansea 0–3(xG 0.6–3.3)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Burnley have won 0 of their last 5.
- Burnley have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Burnley's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Burnley's last 5.
- Burnley kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Derby have won 1 of their last 5.
- Derby have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Derby's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Derby's last 5.
- Derby kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Burnley
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Derby
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Turf Moor, Burnley · Referee: Steve Martin
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Burnley vs Derby?
- Our model makes Burnley the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Derby?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Burnley vs Derby?
- Burnley's reported absences and doubts include A. Ramsey, H. Mejbri, J. Bruun Larsen, D. Satpaev and 10 others. Derby's include L. Travis, C. Morris, J. Widell Zetterstrom, H. Meister and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Burnley vs Derby?
- Burnley line up in a 4-4-2, Derby in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.