Championship · Regular Season - 7
Sheffield UtdvWolves
Sheffield Utd
Wolves·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Sheffield Utd and Wolves finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| She / Wol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sheffield Utd down the side and Wolves across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 57%.
What we think
- Sheffield Utd39% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sheffield Utd the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Wolves the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 25%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 57% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Wolves a 49% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 27% home · 26% draw · 47% away
Now: 25% home · 26% draw · 49% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Wolves
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sheffield Utd
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- F. Seriki — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Burrows — out (Injury)
- S. McCallum — doubtful (Inactive)
- R. One — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Chong — out (Injury)
- J. Shackleton — out (Foot Injury)
- K. Phillips — out (Muscle Injury)
Wolves
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Krejci — out (Calf Injury)
- S. Johnstone — out (Shoulder Injury)
- R. Said — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Bellegarde — out (Hamstring Injury)
- R. Jimenez — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Bueno — out (Inactive)
- S. Neave — doubtful (Injury)
- K. Trippier — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Mosquera — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sheffield UtdWLWDD
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Blackburn 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Norwich 1–3
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Bolton 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Cardiff 2–2(xG 1.5–2.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Swansea 0–0
WolvesDLWWD
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Birmingham 2–2
- Tue 1 Sep · A v West Ham 2–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Stoke City 4–1(xG 2.6–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Preston 3–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Blackburn 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sheffield Utd have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sheffield Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sheffield Utd's last 5.
- Sheffield Utd kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Wolves have won 2 of their last 5.
- Wolves have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Wolves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Wolves's last 5.
- Wolves kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Sheffield Utd have won 1, Wolves 1, with 0 drawn.
- Sheffield Utd W–D–L
- 1–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Wolves 1–0 Sheffield Utd
- Sheffield Utd 2–1 Wolves
7Context
Sheffield Utd
Rest: 5 days · 3 matches in 14d
Wolves
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bramall Lane, Sheffield · Referee: R. Jones
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Wolves?
- Our model makes Sheffield Utd the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Wolves at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Sheffield Utd vs Wolves?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Wolves?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sheffield Utd vs Wolves?
- Sheffield Utd's reported absences and doubts include F. Seriki, H. Burrows, S. McCallum, R. One and 3 others. Wolves's include L. Krejci, S. Johnstone, R. Said, J. Bellegarde and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sheffield Utd vs Wolves?
- Sheffield Utd line up in a 3-5-2, Wolves in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Wolves?
- In their last 2 meetings, Sheffield Utd have won 1, Wolves 1, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.