Liga MX · Apertura - 9
AtlasvU.N.A.M. - Pumas
Atlas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Atlas and U.N.A.M. - Pumas finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Atl / U.N | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atlas down the side and U.N.A.M. - Pumas across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 74% against 76%.
What we think
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas44% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Atlas the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Atlas a 40% chance. Our model makes it 28%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 29% draw · 34% away
Now: 40% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Atlas
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atlas
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Confirmed · 5-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AtlasLDLWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Toluca 2–5
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Atlante FC 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 1–3(xG 1.1–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Cruz Azul 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 2–1
U.N.A.M. - PumasLWLDD
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Guadalajara Chivas 0–3
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Leon 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 0–2(xG 0.4–2.5)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Necaxa 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atlas have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atlas have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atlas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Atlas's last 5.
- Atlas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 1 of their last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 5.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Atlas
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara · Referee: Oscar Mejia Garcia, Mexico
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours Atlas at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- Atlas line up in a 4-1-4-1, U.N.A.M. - Pumas in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.