Premier League · Regular Season - 5
BrightonvArsenal
Brighton
Arsenal·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Brighton and Arsenal finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Bri / Ars | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Brighton down the side and Arsenal across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Arsenal47% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Arsenal the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Brighton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Z. Yohanna — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- G. Rutter — out (Injury)
- M. Wieffer — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Svoboda — out (Injury)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Orozco — out (Injury)
- J. Hinshelwood — out (Injury)
- S. Tzimas — out (Knee Injury)
- M. O'Riley — out (Illness)
- K. Mitoma — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Y. Minteh — out (Injury)
- E. Ferguson — out (Ankle Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
Arsenal
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. White — out (Groin Injury)
- C. Mosquera — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Timber — out (Ankle Injury)
- Bruno Guimaraes — out (Thigh Injury)
- Gabriel Jesus — out (Transfer negotiations)
- G. Martinelli — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Saliba — out (Back Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BrightonWDLWL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Coventry 5–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Leeds 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Chelsea 3–4(xG 1.6–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Aston Villa 4–0(xG 3.8–0.3)
- Sun 24 May · H v Manchester United 0–3
ArsenalWWWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Sunderland 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Chelsea 2–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Aston Villa 1–0(xG 1.1–0.3)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Coventry 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Crystal Palace 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Brighton have won 2 of their last 5.
- Brighton have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Brighton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Brighton's last 5.
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Arsenal have won 5 of their last 5.
- Arsenal have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Arsenal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Arsenal's last 5.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Brighton have won 2, Arsenal 5, with 3 drawn.
- Brighton W–D–L
- 2–3–5
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Brighton 0–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–1 Brighton
- Brighton 1–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1–1 Brighton
- Brighton 0–3 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–0 Brighton
- Arsenal 0–3 Brighton
- Brighton 2–4 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1–2 Brighton
- Brighton 0–0 Arsenal
7Context
Brighton
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Arsenal
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex · Referee: Darren England, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Brighton vs Arsenal?
- Our model makes Arsenal the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Brighton vs Arsenal?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Brighton vs Arsenal?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Brighton vs Arsenal?
- Brighton's reported absences and doubts include Z. Yohanna, G. Rutter, M. Wieffer, M. Svoboda and 9 others. Arsenal's include B. White, C. Mosquera, J. Timber, Bruno Guimaraes and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Brighton vs Arsenal?
- Brighton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Arsenal in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Arsenal?
- In their last 10 meetings, Brighton have won 2, Arsenal 5, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.