Premier League · Regular Season - 5
EvertonvIpswich
Everton
Ipswich·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Everton and Ipswich finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Eve / Ips | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Everton down the side and Ipswich across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 33%.
What we think
- Everton55% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Everton the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 54%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (55%).
For comparison, the market gives Everton a 54% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 54% home · 25% draw · 21% away
Now: 54% home · 25% draw · 21% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Everton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Rohl — out (Injury)
- J. Garner — doubtful (Injury)
- W. Tamen — doubtful (Injury)
- C. Norgaard — out (Injury)
- T. Iroegbunam — out (Muscle Injury)
Ipswich
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Matusiwa — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Philogene — out (Ankle Injury)
- Florentino — out (Inactive)
- J. Taylor — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
EvertonDDDWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Tottenham 0–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Manchester United 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Bournemouth 1–1(xG 1.7–2.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Crystal Palace 2–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Tottenham 0–1
IpswichWLLWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Crystal Palace 3–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Liverpool 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Manchester United 2–5(xG 2.0–4.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sunderland 2–1
- Sun 25 May · H v West Ham 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Everton have won 1 of their last 5.
- Everton have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Everton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Everton's last 5.
- Everton kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Ipswich have won 2 of their last 5.
- Ipswich have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Ipswich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Ipswich's last 5.
- Ipswich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Everton have won 1, Ipswich 0, with 1 drawn.
- Everton W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Everton 2–2 Ipswich
- Ipswich 0–2 Everton
7Context
Everton
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Ipswich
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool · Referee: Stuart Attwell, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Everton vs Ipswich?
- Our model makes Everton the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.
- How many goals are expected in Everton vs Ipswich?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Everton vs Ipswich?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Everton vs Ipswich?
- Everton's reported absences and doubts include M. Rohl, J. Garner, W. Tamen, C. Norgaard and 1 other. Ipswich's include A. Matusiwa, J. Philogene, Florentino, J. Taylor. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Everton vs Ipswich?
- Everton line up in a 4-2-3-1, Ipswich in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Ipswich?
- In their last 2 meetings, Everton have won 1, Ipswich 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.