Premier League · Regular Season - 4
TottenhamvEverton
Tottenham
Everton·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Tottenham and Everton finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Tot / Eve | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Tottenham down the side and Everton across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 51% against 56%.
What we think
- Tottenham40% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Tottenham the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 56% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Tottenham a 49% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 26% draw · 26% away
Now: 49% home · 25% draw · 26% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Tottenham
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Tottenham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. M. Sarr — out (Muscle Injury)
- Richarlison — out (Inactive)
- M. Mudryk — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Maddison — out (Knock)
- Savinho — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- M. Kudus — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. van de Ven — out (Injury)
- X. Simons — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Porro — out (Inactive)
- W. Odobert — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Kulusevski — out (Knee Injury)
Everton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Rohl — out (Injury)
- J. Garner — doubtful (Injury)
- W. Tamen — doubtful (Injury)
- C. Norgaard — out (Injury)
- T. Iroegbunam — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TottenhamDLLWL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Nottingham Forest 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Newcastle 0–2(xG 1.0–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Brentford 0–3
- Sun 24 May · H v Everton 1–0
- Tue 19 May · A v Chelsea 1–2
EvertonDDWLL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Manchester United 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Bournemouth 1–1(xG 1.7–2.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Crystal Palace 2–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Tottenham 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Sunderland 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Tottenham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Tottenham have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Tottenham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Tottenham's last 5.
- Tottenham kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Everton have won 1 of their last 5.
- Everton have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Everton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Everton's last 5.
- Everton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Tottenham have won 6, Everton 1, with 3 drawn.
- Tottenham W–D–L
- 6–3–1
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Tottenham 1–0 Everton
- Everton 0–3 Tottenham
- Everton 3–2 Tottenham
- Tottenham 4–0 Everton
- Everton 2–2 Tottenham
- Tottenham 2–1 Everton
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham
- Tottenham 2–0 Everton
- Tottenham 5–0 Everton
- Everton 0–0 Tottenham
7Context
Tottenham
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Everton
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · Referee: Darren England, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Tottenham vs Everton?
- Our model makes Tottenham the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Tottenham vs Everton?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Everton?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Tottenham vs Everton?
- Tottenham's reported absences and doubts include P. M. Sarr, Richarlison, M. Mudryk, J. Maddison and 7 others. Everton's include M. Rohl, J. Garner, W. Tamen, C. Norgaard and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Tottenham vs Everton?
- Tottenham line up in a 4-2-3-1, Everton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Everton?
- In their last 10 meetings, Tottenham have won 6, Everton 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.