Premier League · Regular Season - 4
BournemouthvBrentford
Bournemouth
Brentford·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Bournemouth and Brentford finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bou / Bre | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Bournemouth down the side and Brentford across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 81% against 82%.
What we think
- Bournemouth46% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Bournemouth the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 39%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, which is what the market has it at too (59%).
For comparison, the market gives Bournemouth a 39% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 26% draw · 35% away
Now: 39% home · 26% draw · 34% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Brentford
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bournemouth
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Adli — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Kluivert — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Soler — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- V. Milosavljevic — out (Injury)
- E. J. Kroupi — out (Foot Injury)
- R. Christie — out (Red Card)
- J. Araujo — out (Thigh Injury)
Brentford
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- M. Jensen — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Milambo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Furo — out (Surgery)
- N. Collins — out (Injury)
- J. Dasilva — out (Injury)
- S. van den Berg — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BournemouthDDLDD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Newcastle 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Everton 1–1(xG 2.1–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Manchester City 1–2(xG 0.7–2.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Nottingham Forest 1–1
- Tue 19 May · H v Manchester City 1–1
BrentfordDDWDD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Sunderland 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Leeds 1–1(xG 1.6–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Tottenham 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Liverpool 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Crystal Palace 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bournemouth have won 0 of their last 5.
- Bournemouth have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Bournemouth's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bournemouth's last 5.
- Bournemouth kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Brentford have won 1 of their last 5.
- Brentford have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Brentford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Brentford's last 5.
- Brentford kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Bournemouth have won 0, Brentford 5, with 3 drawn.
- Bournemouth W–D–L
- 0–3–5
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 8
- Both scored
- 5 of 8
- Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford
- Brentford 4–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Brentford
- Brentford 3–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–2 Brentford
- Brentford 2–2 Bournemouth
- Brentford 2–0 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford
7Context
Bournemouth
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Brentford
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset · Referee: Jarred Gillett, Australia
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Bournemouth vs Brentford?
- Our model makes Bournemouth the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
- Bournemouth's reported absences and doubts include A. Adli, J. Kluivert, J. Soler, V. Milosavljevic and 3 others. Brentford's include M. Jensen, A. Milambo, K. Furo, N. Collins and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
- Bournemouth line up in a 4-2-3-1, Brentford in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Brentford?
- In their last 8 meetings, Bournemouth have won 0, Brentford 5, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.