Premier League · Regular Season - 4
ChelseavHull City
Chelsea
Hull City·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.9–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (8%). Chelsea and Hull City finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Che / Hul | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Chelsea down the side and Hull City across. These 92.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 7.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 43% against 47%.
What we think
- Chelsea80% · Match result
- Over 2.568% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Chelsea the most likely of the three results, at 80% (we would not be surprised by anything from 72% to 87%). Most likely is not likely: at 80% this result does not happen 20% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 80%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 68%, which is what the market has it at too (69%).
For comparison, the market gives Chelsea a 80% chance. Our model makes it 80%.
2Market
Open: 79% home · 14% draw · 7% away
Now: 80% home · 13% draw · 7% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Chelsea
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chelsea
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Emegha — out (Injury)
- Joao Pedro — out (Injury)
- M. Gusto — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Caicedo — out (Injury)
- M. Palestra — out (Injury)
- E. Fernandez — out (Coach's decision)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- M. Sarr — out (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Henderson — out (Wrist Injury)
- W. Fofana — out (Red Card)
- A. Anselmino — out (Inactive)
Hull City
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- M. Targett — out (Ankle Injury)
- N. Mendy — out (Injury)
- P. McNair — out (Foot Injury)
- T. Iroegbunam — doubtful (Inactive)
- M. Crooks — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Ansah — out (Back Injury)
- J. Gelhardt — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Jacob — out (Hip Injury)
- O. Zambrano — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Morita — out (Calf Injury)
- E. Matazo — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Hughes — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Gyabi — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Butland — out (Arm Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ChelseaLWWLW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Arsenal 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Brighton 4–3(xG 3.0–1.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Fulham 3–2(xG 2.2–1.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Sunderland 1–2
- Tue 19 May · H v Tottenham 2–1
Hull CityDWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Aston Villa 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Coventry 1–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Manchester United 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chelsea have won 3 of their last 5.
- Chelsea have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Chelsea's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chelsea's last 5.
- Chelsea kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Hull City have won 2 of their last 3.
- Hull City have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 0 of Hull City's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Hull City's last 3.
- Hull City kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Chelsea
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Hull City
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stamford Bridge, London · Referee: Farai Hallam, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Chelsea vs Hull City?
- Our model makes Chelsea the most likely result at 80%. Most likely is not likely — at 80% it does not happen 20% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 80%.
- How many goals are expected in Chelsea vs Hull City?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 68%, and under 2.5 at 32%.
- Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Hull City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Chelsea vs Hull City?
- Chelsea's reported absences and doubts include E. Emegha, Joao Pedro, M. Gusto, M. Caicedo and 7 others. Hull City's include M. Targett, N. Mendy, P. McNair, T. Iroegbunam and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Chelsea vs Hull City?
- Chelsea line up in a 3-4-2-1, Hull City in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.