Premier League · Regular Season - 4
LiverpoolvFulham
Liverpool
Fulham·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Liverpool and Fulham finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Liv / Ful | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Liverpool down the side and Fulham across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 34% against 44%.
What we think
- Liverpool57% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Liverpool the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 67% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Liverpool a 64% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 67% home · 19% draw · 14% away
Now: 64% home · 20% draw · 16% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Liverpool
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Liverpool
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Gomez — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Kerkez — doubtful (Injury)
- B. Barcola — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Leoni — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Elliott — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Ekitike — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- F. Chiesa — out (Back Injury)
- C. Bradley — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Bajcetic — out (Hamstring Injury)
Fulham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Tete — out (Concussion)
- Manuel Angel — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- L. De Fougerolles — out (Injury)
- H. Larsson — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- T. Cairney — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Andersen — out (Red Card)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LiverpoolWDDDL
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Ipswich 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Nottingham Forest 2–2(xG 1.6–2.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Newcastle 2–2(xG 3.0–1.6)
- Sun 24 May · H v Brentford 1–1
- Fri 15 May · A v Aston Villa 2–4
FulhamLLLWD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Crystal Palace 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Sunderland 0–1(xG 0.8–1.8)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Chelsea 2–3(xG 1.3–2.2)
- Sun 24 May · H v Newcastle 2–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Wolves 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Liverpool have won 1 of their last 5.
- Liverpool have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Liverpool's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Liverpool's last 5.
- Liverpool kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Fulham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Fulham have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Fulham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Fulham's last 5.
- Fulham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham 1, with 3 drawn.
- Liverpool W–D–L
- 4–3–1
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 8
- Both scored
- 6 of 8
- Liverpool 2–0 Fulham
- Fulham 2–2 Liverpool
- Fulham 3–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–2 Fulham
- Fulham 1–3 Liverpool
- Liverpool 4–3 Fulham
- Liverpool 1–0 Fulham
- Fulham 2–2 Liverpool
7Context
Liverpool
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Fulham
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Anfield, Liverpool · Referee: Thomas Bramall, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Liverpool vs Fulham?
- Our model makes Liverpool the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Fulham?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Liverpool vs Fulham?
- Liverpool's reported absences and doubts include J. Gomez, M. Kerkez, B. Barcola, G. Leoni and 5 others. Fulham's include K. Tete, Manuel Angel, L. De Fougerolles, H. Larsson and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Liverpool vs Fulham?
- Liverpool line up in a 4-2-3-1, Fulham in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
- In their last 8 meetings, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.