Premier League · Regular Season - 4
SunderlandvArsenal
Sunderland
Arsenal·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–10.6–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (16%), then 0-2 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Sunderland and Arsenal finish on some other score 59% of the time.
| Sun / Ars | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sunderland down the side and Arsenal across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 49% against 45%.
What we think
- Arsenal65% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- No52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Arsenal the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 56% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 61%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 45% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Arsenal a 61% chance. Our model makes it 65%.
2Market
Open: 12% home · 22% draw · 65% away
Now: 15% home · 24% draw · 61% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Arsenal
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sunderland
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Mandava — out (Red Card)
- R. Mundle — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Diarra — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Adingra — out (Foot Injury)
- D. Methalie — out (Yellow Cards)
Arsenal
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. White — out (Groin Injury)
- C. Mosquera — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Timber — out (Ankle Injury)
- Bruno Guimaraes — out (Thigh Injury)
- Gabriel Jesus — out (Transfer negotiations)
- G. Martinelli — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Saliba — out (Back Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SunderlandDWLWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Brentford 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Fulham 1–0(xG 1.8–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Ipswich 1–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Chelsea 2–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Everton 3–1
ArsenalWWWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Chelsea 2–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Aston Villa 1–0(xG 1.1–0.3)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Coventry 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Crystal Palace 2–1
- Mon 18 May · H v Burnley 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sunderland have won 3 of their last 5.
- Sunderland have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sunderland's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sunderland's last 5.
- Sunderland kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Arsenal have won 5 of their last 5.
- Arsenal have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Arsenal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Arsenal's last 5.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Sunderland have won 0, Arsenal 1, with 1 drawn.
- Sunderland W–D–L
- 0–1–1
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland
- Sunderland 2–2 Arsenal
7Context
Sunderland
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Arsenal
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadium of Light, Sunderland · Referee: John Brooks, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sunderland vs Arsenal?
- Our model makes Arsenal the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 61%.
- How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Arsenal?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Arsenal?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, against 52% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
- Sunderland's reported absences and doubts include R. Mandava, R. Mundle, H. Diarra, S. Adingra and 1 other. Arsenal's include B. White, C. Mosquera, J. Timber, Bruno Guimaraes and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
- Sunderland line up in a 4-2-3-1, Arsenal in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Arsenal?
- In their last 2 meetings, Sunderland have won 0, Arsenal 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.