Premier League · Regular Season - 4
Aston VillavNottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ast / Not | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Aston Villa down the side and Nottingham Forest across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 27%.
What we think
- Aston Villa47% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Aston Villa the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 49% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Aston Villa a 42% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 27% draw · 27% away
Now: 42% home · 29% draw · 29% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Aston Villa
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Aston Villa
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Torres — out (Injury)
- I. Maatsen — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Bizot — out (Back Injury)
- Alysson — out (Injury)
- M. Cash — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Goretzka — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Madjo — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Bailey — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Harwood-Bellis — doubtful (Injury)
- I. Mbaye — out (Inactive)
- T. Abraham — out (Injury)
- O. Watkins — out (Inactive)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- Joao Gomes — out (Red Card)
- A. Onana — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Manzambi — out (Knee Injury)
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Milenkovic — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Sangare — out (Calf Injury)
- R. Yates — out (Injury)
- N. Savona — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Aston VillaDLLWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Hull City 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Arsenal 0–1(xG 0.3–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Brighton 0–4(xG 0.3–3.8)
- Sun 24 May · A v Manchester City 2–1
- Fri 15 May · H v Liverpool 4–2
Nottingham ForestDDLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Tottenham 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Liverpool 2–2(xG 2.3–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Leeds 0–1
- Sun 24 May · H v Bournemouth 1–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Manchester United 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 5.
- Aston Villa have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Aston Villa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Aston Villa's last 5.
- Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Nottingham Forest have won 0 of their last 5.
- Nottingham Forest have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Nottingham Forest's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Nottingham Forest's last 5.
- Nottingham Forest kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Aston Villa have won 4, Nottingham Forest 2, with 2 drawn.
- Aston Villa W–D–L
- 4–2–2
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 6 of 8
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 2–0 Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa
7Context
Aston Villa
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nottingham Forest
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Villa Park, Birmingham · Referee: Andy Madley, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Our model makes Aston Villa the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Aston Villa's reported absences and doubts include P. Torres, I. Maatsen, M. Bizot, Alysson and 12 others. Nottingham Forest's include N. Milenkovic, I. Sangare, R. Yates, N. Savona. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Aston Villa line up in a 4-2-3-1, Nottingham Forest in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest?
- In their last 8 meetings, Aston Villa have won 4, Nottingham Forest 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.