Premier League · Regular Season - 5
Nottingham ForestvCoventry
Nottingham Forest
Coventry·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Nottingham Forest and Coventry finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Not / Cov | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Nottingham Forest down the side and Coventry across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 57% against 53%.
What we think
- Nottingham Forest57% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Nottingham Forest the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, against the market’s 53% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Nottingham Forest a 59% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 24% draw · 17% away
Now: 59% home · 24% draw · 17% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Milenkovic — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Sangare — out (Calf Injury)
- R. Yates — out (Injury)
- N. Savona — out (Knee Injury)
Coventry
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Awoniyi — out (Red Card)
- A. Amenda — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Eccles — out (Injury)
- Y. Gboho — out (Transfer negotiations)
- F. Onyeka — doubtful (Inactive)
- S. Mfuni — out (Loan agreement)
- K. Kesler-Hayden — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Wright — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Woolfenden — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Nottingham ForestWDDLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Aston Villa 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Tottenham 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Liverpool 2–2(xG 2.3–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Leeds 0–1
- Sun 24 May · H v Bournemouth 1–1
CoventryLLLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Brighton 0–5
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Manchester City 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Hull City 0–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Arsenal 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 5.
- Nottingham Forest have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Nottingham Forest's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Nottingham Forest's last 5.
- Nottingham Forest kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Coventry have won 0 of their last 4.
- Coventry have scored in 0 of their last 4.
- 2 of Coventry's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Coventry's last 4.
- Coventry kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Nottingham Forest
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Coventry
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire · Referee: Jarred Gillett, Australia
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
- Our model makes Nottingham Forest the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- How many goals are expected in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
- Nottingham Forest's reported absences and doubts include N. Milenkovic, I. Sangare, R. Yates, N. Savona. Coventry's include T. Awoniyi, A. Amenda, J. Eccles, Y. Gboho and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
- Nottingham Forest line up in a 3-4-2-1, Coventry in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.