Premier League · Regular Season - 4
CoventryvBrighton
Coventry
Brighton·
0 – 5 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Coventry and Brighton finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cov / Bri | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Coventry down the side and Brighton across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 58% against 55%.
What we think
- Brighton51% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Brighton the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 55% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Brighton a 51% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 24% home · 25% draw · 51% away
Now: 24% home · 25% draw · 51% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Coventry
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Awoniyi — out (Red Card)
- A. Amenda — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Eccles — out (Injury)
- Y. Gboho — out (Transfer negotiations)
- F. Onyeka — doubtful (Inactive)
- S. Mfuni — out (Loan agreement)
- K. Kesler-Hayden — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Wright — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Woolfenden — out (Knee Injury)
Brighton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Z. Yohanna — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- G. Rutter — out (Injury)
- M. Wieffer — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Svoboda — out (Injury)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Orozco — out (Injury)
- J. Hinshelwood — out (Injury)
- S. Tzimas — out (Knee Injury)
- M. O'Riley — out (Illness)
- K. Mitoma — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Y. Minteh — out (Injury)
- E. Ferguson — out (Ankle Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CoventryLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Manchester City 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Hull City 0–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Arsenal 0–3
BrightonDLWLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Leeds 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Chelsea 3–4(xG 1.6–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Aston Villa 4–0(xG 3.8–0.3)
- Sun 24 May · H v Manchester United 0–3
- Sun 17 May · A v Leeds 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Coventry have won 0 of their last 3.
- Coventry have scored in 0 of their last 3.
- 1 of Coventry's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Coventry's last 3.
- Coventry kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Brighton have won 1 of their last 5.
- Brighton have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Brighton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Brighton's last 5.
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Coventry
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Brighton
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry · Referee: Tony Harrington, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Coventry vs Brighton?
- Our model makes Brighton the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- How many goals are expected in Coventry vs Brighton?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Coventry vs Brighton?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Coventry vs Brighton?
- Coventry's reported absences and doubts include T. Awoniyi, A. Amenda, J. Eccles, Y. Gboho and 5 others. Brighton's include Z. Yohanna, G. Rutter, M. Wieffer, M. Svoboda and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Coventry vs Brighton?
- Coventry line up in a 3-4-2-1, Brighton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.