Premier League · Regular Season - 4
Manchester UnitedvManchester City
Manchester United
Manchester City·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Manchester United and Manchester City finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Man / Man | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Manchester United down the side and Manchester City across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Manchester City44% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Manchester City the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Manchester United
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. Sesko — out (Inactive)
- L. Shaw — out (Injury)
- M. Mount — out (Foot Injury)
- T. Heaton — out (Injury)
- A. Diallo — out (Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. de Ligt — out (Back Injury)
- M. Ugarte — out (Knee Injury)
Manchester City
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Foden — out (Red Card)
- M. Nunes — out (Injury)
- J. Doku — out (Calf Injury)
- E. Fernandez — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- Allan Elias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Savinho — out (Transfer negotiations)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Manchester UnitedDWLWW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Everton 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ipswich 5–2(xG 4.6–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Hull City 0–2
- Sun 24 May · A v Brighton 3–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Nottingham Forest 3–2
Manchester CityWWWLD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Coventry 1–0
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Crystal Palace 4–1(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Bournemouth 2–1(xG 2.3–0.7)
- Sun 24 May · H v Aston Villa 1–2
- Tue 19 May · A v Bournemouth 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Manchester United have won 3 of their last 5.
- Manchester United have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Manchester United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Manchester United's last 5.
- Manchester United kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Manchester City have won 3 of their last 5.
- Manchester City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Manchester City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Manchester City's last 5.
- Manchester City kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Manchester United have won 3, Manchester City 6, with 1 drawn.
- Manchester United W–D–L
- 3–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 7 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Manchester United 2–0 Manchester City
- Manchester City 3–0 Manchester United
- Manchester United 0–0 Manchester City
- Manchester City 1–2 Manchester United
- Manchester City 3–1 Manchester United
- Manchester United 0–3 Manchester City
- Manchester United 2–1 Manchester City
- Manchester City 6–3 Manchester United
- Manchester City 4–1 Manchester United
- Manchester United 0–2 Manchester City
7Context
Manchester United
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Manchester City
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Old Trafford, Manchester · Referee: Michael Oliver, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Manchester United vs Manchester City?
- Our model makes Manchester City the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
- Manchester United's reported absences and doubts include B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Mount, T. Heaton and 4 others. Manchester City's include P. Foden, M. Nunes, J. Doku, E. Fernandez and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
- Manchester United line up in a 4-2-3-1, Manchester City in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Manchester City?
- In their last 10 meetings, Manchester United have won 3, Manchester City 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.