Premier League · Regular Season - 5
NewcastlevHull City
Newcastle
Hull City·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.9–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (10%), then 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (8%). Newcastle and Hull City finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| New / Hul | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Newcastle down the side and Hull City across. These 93.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 7.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 67% against 57%.
What we think
- Newcastle79% · Match result
- Over 2.567% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Newcastle
Best price 1.65 at 1xBetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 79% against a market price of 60% — 19 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 83% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 24 players reported unavailable — 10 for Newcastle, 14 for Hull City.
Our forecast makes Newcastle the most likely of the three results, at 79% (we would not be surprised by anything from 68% to 87%). Most likely is not likely: at 79% this result does not happen 21% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 67%, against the market’s 57% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Newcastle a 60% chance. Our model makes it 79%.
2Market
Open: 60% home · 22% draw · 18% away
Now: 60% home · 22% draw · 18% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Newcastle
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Joelinton — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Ramsey — out (Injury)
- Nico — out (Injury)
- A. Elanga — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Dedic — out (Injury)
- E. Jaouen — out (Ankle Injury)
- V. Livramento — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Fernandez-Pardo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Osula — out (Injury)
- D. Burn — out (Ankle Injury)
Hull City
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- M. Targett — out (Ankle Injury)
- N. Mendy — out (Injury)
- P. McNair — out (Foot Injury)
- T. Iroegbunam — doubtful (Inactive)
- M. Crooks — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Ansah — out (Back Injury)
- J. Gelhardt — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Jacob — out (Hip Injury)
- O. Zambrano — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Morita — out (Calf Injury)
- E. Matazo — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Hughes — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Gyabi — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Butland — out (Arm Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NewcastleLDWDL
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Leeds 1–4
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bournemouth 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Tottenham 2–0(xG 0.8–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Liverpool 2–2(xG 1.6–3.0)
- Sun 24 May · A v Fulham 0–2
Hull CityDDWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Chelsea 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Aston Villa 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Coventry 1–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Manchester United 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Newcastle have won 1 of their last 5.
- Newcastle have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Newcastle's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Newcastle's last 5.
- Newcastle kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Hull City have won 2 of their last 4.
- Hull City have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 1 of Hull City's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Hull City's last 4.
- Hull City kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Newcastle
Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d
Hull City
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
St James’ Park, Newcastle · Referee: Tony Harrington, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Newcastle vs Hull City?
- Our model makes Newcastle the most likely result at 79%. Most likely is not likely — at 79% it does not happen 21% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Hull City?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 67%, and under 2.5 at 33%.
- Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Hull City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Newcastle vs Hull City?
- Newcastle's reported absences and doubts include Joelinton, J. Ramsey, Nico, A. Elanga and 6 others. Hull City's include M. Targett, N. Mendy, P. McNair, T. Iroegbunam and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Newcastle vs Hull City?
- Newcastle line up in a 4-2-3-1, Hull City in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.