Premier League · Regular Season - 4
LeedsvNewcastle
Leeds
Newcastle·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Leeds and Newcastle finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lee / New | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Leeds down the side and Newcastle across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 58% against 54%.
What we think
- Leeds41% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Leeds the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 54% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Leeds a 42% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 27% draw · 32% away
Now: 42% home · 27% draw · 30% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Newcastle
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Leeds
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- H. Wilson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rodon — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gudmundsson — out (Hamstring Injury)
- W. Gnonto — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Gruev — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Joseph — out (Knee Injury)
Newcastle
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Joelinton — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Ramsey — out (Injury)
- Nico — out (Injury)
- A. Elanga — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Dedic — out (Injury)
- E. Jaouen — out (Ankle Injury)
- V. Livramento — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Fernandez-Pardo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Osula — out (Injury)
- D. Burn — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LeedsDDWLW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Brighton 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Brentford 1–1(xG 1.5–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nottingham Forest 1–0
- Sun 24 May · A v West Ham 0–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Brighton 1–0
NewcastleDWDLW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bournemouth 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Tottenham 2–0(xG 0.8–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Liverpool 2–2(xG 1.6–3.0)
- Sun 24 May · A v Fulham 0–2
- Sun 17 May · H v West Ham 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Leeds have won 2 of their last 5.
- Leeds have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Leeds's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Leeds's last 5.
- Leeds kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5.
- Newcastle have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Newcastle's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Newcastle's last 5.
- Newcastle kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds have won 0, Newcastle 2, with 4 drawn.
- Leeds W–D–L
- 0–4–2
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 6
- Both scored
- 3 of 6
- Newcastle 4–3 Leeds
- Leeds 0–0 Newcastle
- Leeds 2–2 Newcastle
- Newcastle 0–0 Leeds
- Leeds 0–1 Newcastle
- Newcastle 1–1 Leeds
7Context
Leeds
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Newcastle
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire · Referee: Michael Salisbury, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Leeds vs Newcastle?
- Our model makes Leeds the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Leeds vs Newcastle?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Leeds vs Newcastle?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Leeds vs Newcastle?
- Leeds's reported absences and doubts include H. Wilson, J. Rodon, G. Gudmundsson, W. Gnonto and 2 others. Newcastle's include Joelinton, J. Ramsey, Nico, A. Elanga and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Leeds vs Newcastle?
- Leeds line up in a 3-5-2, Newcastle in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Newcastle?
- In their last 6 meetings, Leeds have won 0, Newcastle 2, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.