Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 6
Union St. GilloisevLommel United
Union St. Gilloise
Lommel United·
5 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.6–0.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (19%), then 2-0 (15%), 0-0 (13%). Union St. Gilloise and Lommel United finish on some other score 53% of the time.
| Uni / Lom | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Union St. Gilloise down the side and Lommel United across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 43% against 68%.
What we think
- Union St. Gilloise63% · Match result
- Under 2.557% · Goals
- No55% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 78% against a market price of 55% — 23 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 86% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.6 goals, and 2.9 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 81%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 43%, against the market’s 68% — a 25 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Union St. Gilloise a 81% chance. Our model makes it 63%.
2Market
Open: 79% home · 14% draw · 7% away
Now: 81% home · 13% draw · 6% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Union St. Gilloise
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
No reported absences.
Lommel United
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Union St. GilloiseWWWDW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Charleroi 3–2
- Wed 2 Sep · A v St. Truiden 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Anderlecht 3–0(xG 1.6–1.3)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Zulte Waregem 0–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v KVC Westerlo 5–1
Lommel UnitedLWWLD
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Club Brugge KV 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Cercle Brugge 1–0(xG 1.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v KVC Westerlo 4–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Charleroi 0–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v St. Truiden 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Union St. Gilloise have won 4 of their last 5.
- Union St. Gilloise have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Union St. Gilloise's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Union St. Gilloise's last 5.
- Union St. Gilloise kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Lommel United have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lommel United have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Lommel United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lommel United's last 5.
- Lommel United kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Union St. Gilloise
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Lommel United
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels · Referee: Y. Araki
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?
- Our model makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 81%.
- How many goals are expected in Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 43%, and under 2.5 at 57%.
- Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 45% chance, against 55% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United?
- Union St. Gilloise line up in a 3-4-1-2, Lommel United in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.