Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 6
OH LeuvenvCercle Brugge
OH Leuven
Cercle Brugge·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). OH Leuven and Cercle Brugge finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| OH / Cer | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, OH Leuven down the side and Cercle Brugge across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 60%.
What we think
- Cercle Brugge39% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cercle Brugge the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes OH Leuven the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 60% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives OH Leuven a 38% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 26% draw · 37% away
Now: 38% home · 26% draw · 36% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards OH Leuven
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
OH Leuven
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
OH LeuvenLLLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v SK Beveren 0–3
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Gent 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Standard Liege 1–2(xG 1.9–1.4)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Club Brugge KV 0–3
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Charleroi 1–3
Cercle BruggeLLLDD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Gent 0–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Lommel United 0–1(xG 1.3–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Club Brugge KV 0–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v St. Truiden 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Standard Liege 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- OH Leuven have won 0 of their last 5.
- OH Leuven have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 4 of OH Leuven's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of OH Leuven's last 5.
- OH Leuven kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Cercle Brugge have won 0 of their last 5.
- Cercle Brugge have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Cercle Brugge's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Cercle Brugge's last 5.
- Cercle Brugge kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
OH Leuven
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Cercle Brugge
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Den Dreef, Heverlee · Referee: B. Van Driessche
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
- Our model makes Cercle Brugge the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours OH Leuven at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
- OH Leuven line up in a 3-4-3, Cercle Brugge in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.