Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 6
KVC WesterlovStandard Liege
KVC Westerlo
Standard Liege·
4 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). KVC Westerlo and Standard Liege finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| KVC / Sta | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, KVC Westerlo down the side and Standard Liege across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 59%.
What we think
- KVC Westerlo46% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes KVC Westerlo the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 39%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 59% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives KVC Westerlo a 39% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 26% draw · 36% away
Now: 39% home · 26% draw · 35% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Standard Liege
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Standard Liege
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KVC WesterloWDLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v KV Mechelen 4–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Zulte Waregem 2–2(xG 2.2–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Lommel United 0–4
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Genk 2–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Union St. Gilloise 1–5
Standard LiegeWWWDD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Antwerp 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v OH Leuven 2–1(xG 1.4–1.9)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v RAAL La Louvière 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v KV Mechelen 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Cercle Brugge 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- KVC Westerlo have won 1 of their last 5.
- KVC Westerlo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of KVC Westerlo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of KVC Westerlo's last 5.
- KVC Westerlo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Standard Liege have won 3 of their last 5.
- Standard Liege have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Standard Liege's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Standard Liege's last 5.
- Standard Liege kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
KVC Westerlo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Standard Liege
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Het Kuipje, Westerlo · Referee: B. Put
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege?
- Our model makes KVC Westerlo the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege?
- KVC Westerlo line up in a 4-2-3-1, Standard Liege in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.