Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 6
SK BeverenvSt. Truiden
SK Beveren
St. Truiden·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). SK Beveren and St. Truiden finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| SK / St. | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, SK Beveren down the side and St. Truiden across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 38%.
What we think
- St. Truiden44% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes St. Truiden the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 60% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives St. Truiden a 42% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 30% home · 26% draw · 43% away
Now: 32% home · 26% draw · 42% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards SK Beveren
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
SK Beveren
Confirmed · 4-1-3-2
No reported absences.
St. Truiden
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SK BeverenWLLWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v OH Leuven 3–0
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Genk 0–4(xG 0.6–3.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Zulte Waregem 0–4
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Anderlecht 1–0
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Antwerp 1–2
St. TruidenWLWDD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v RAAL La Louvière 4–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Union St. Gilloise 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Antwerp 4–1(xG 3.4–0.8)
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Cercle Brugge 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Lommel United 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- SK Beveren have won 2 of their last 5.
- SK Beveren have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of SK Beveren's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of SK Beveren's last 5.
- SK Beveren kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- St. Truiden have won 2 of their last 5.
- St. Truiden have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of St. Truiden's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of St. Truiden's last 5.
- St. Truiden kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
SK Beveren
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
St. Truiden
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Freethiel Stadion, Beveren · Referee: K. van Damme
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
- Our model makes St. Truiden the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for SK Beveren vs St. Truiden?
- SK Beveren line up in a 4-1-3-2, St. Truiden in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.