Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
Le MansvLens
Le Mans
Lens·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.0–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Le Mans and Lens finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Le / Len | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Le Mans down the side and Lens across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 41%.
What we think
- Lens53% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 70% against a market price of 59% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 8 matches between them averaged 3.5 goals, and 5.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 23 players reported unavailable — 13 for Le Mans, 10 for Lens.
Our forecast makes Lens the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 63% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Lens a 60% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 19% home · 22% draw · 60% away
Now: 19% home · 22% draw · 60% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Le Mans
Confirmed · 3-1-4-2
- N. Kocik — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Rossignol — out (Coach's decision)
- L. Buades — out (Knock)
- E. Colas — out (Injury)
- S. Yohou — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Quarshie — out (Coach's decision)
- W. Harhouz — out (Coach's decision)
- T. Eyoum — out (Coach's decision)
- D. Sidibe — out (Red Card)
- H. Diallo — out (Inactive)
- Y. Larouci — out (Concussion)
- R. Bamba — out (Loan agreement)
- H. Voyer — out (Yellow Cards)
Lens
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- Y. Titraoui — out (Injury)
- S. Sagnan — out (Red Card)
- M. Nawrocki — out (Injury)
- N. Celik — out (Injury)
- J. Gradit — out (Thigh Injury)
- O. Edouard — out (Personal Reasons)
- J. Chavez — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Baidoo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Antonio — out (Red Card)
- S. Abdulhamid — out (Contusion)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Le MansDLD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Nice 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Rennes 2–3(xG 3.0–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Stade Brestois 29 2–2
LensLLWWL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Lorient 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Strasbourg 1–2(xG 2.9–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Auxerre 5–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Lyon 4–0
- Wed 13 May · H v Paris Saint Germain 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Le Mans have won 0 of their last 3.
- Le Mans have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of Le Mans's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Le Mans's last 3.
- Le Mans kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Lens have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lens have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Lens's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lens's last 5.
- Lens kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Le Mans
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lens
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans · Referee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Le Mans vs Lens?
- Our model makes Lens the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- How many goals are expected in Le Mans vs Lens?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Lens?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Le Mans vs Lens?
- Le Mans's reported absences and doubts include N. Kocik, M. Rossignol, L. Buades, E. Colas and 9 others. Lens's include Y. Titraoui, S. Sagnan, M. Nawrocki, N. Celik and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Le Mans vs Lens?
- Le Mans line up in a 3-1-4-2, Lens in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.