Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
LillevEstac Troyes
Lille
Estac Troyes·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Lille and Estac Troyes finish on some other score 64% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lil / Est | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lille down the side and Estac Troyes across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 57%.
What we think
- Lille68% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lille the most likely of the three results, at 68% (we would not be surprised by anything from 56% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 68% this result does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 57% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Lille a 68% chance. Our model makes it 68%.
2Market
Open: 68% home · 20% draw · 12% away
Now: 68% home · 20% draw · 12% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lille
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. Nianzou — out (Knock)
- M. Fernandez-Pardo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- L. Srdanovic — out (Inactive)
- S. Diaoune — out (Inactive)
- B. Andre — out (Yellow Cards)
- H. Igamane — out (Knee Injury)
Estac Troyes
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Phliponeau — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Ifnaoui — out (Injury)
- P. Gozzi — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Titi — out (Injury)
- A. Fatah — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Boura — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LilleWDWLW
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Toulouse 1–0
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–2(xG 1.1–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Angers 2–0(xG 1.2–2.0)
- Sun 17 May · H v Auxerre 0–2
- Sun 10 May · A v Monaco 1–0
Estac TroyesLWDDL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Strasbourg 2–6
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Lorient 2–1(xG 1.6–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Paris FC 0–0
- Sat 3 Jun · H v Lille 1–1
- Sat 27 May · A v Angers 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5.
- Lille have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Lille's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lille's last 5.
- Lille kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Estac Troyes have won 1 of their last 5.
- Estac Troyes have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Estac Troyes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Estac Troyes's last 5.
- Estac Troyes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Lille have won 2, Estac Troyes 1, with 1 drawn.
- Lille W–D–L
- 2–1–1
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 4
- Both scored
- 3 of 4
- Estac Troyes 1–1 Lille
- Lille 5–1 Estac Troyes
- Estac Troyes 3–0 Lille
- Lille 2–1 Estac Troyes
7Context
Lille
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Estac Troyes
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille · Referee: Romain Lissorgue, France
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Our model makes Lille the most likely result at 68%. Most likely is not likely — at 68% it does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
- How many goals are expected in Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Lille's reported absences and doubts include T. Nianzou, M. Fernandez-Pardo, L. Srdanovic, S. Diaoune and 2 others. Estac Troyes's include A. Phliponeau, M. Ifnaoui, P. Gozzi, Y. Titi and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
- Lille line up in a 4-2-3-1, Estac Troyes in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Estac Troyes?
- In their last 4 meetings, Lille have won 2, Estac Troyes 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.