Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4

Stade Brestois 29vParis Saint Germain

·

0 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.0–2.2 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–2 (10%), then 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain finish on some other score 71% of the time.

Probability of each scoreline, Stade Brestois 29 goals down the side, Paris Saint Germain across
Sta / Par012345
04910742
14910742
2255420.9
30.72210.70.3
40.20.40.40.30.20.1
50.00.10.10.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Stade Brestois 29 down the side and Paris Saint Germain across. These 97.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.4% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 81%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 60%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 37%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Paris Saint Germain63% · Match result
  • Over 2.560% · Goals
  • Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 54% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home16%vs—
Draw20%vs—
Away63%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.560%vs—
Under 2.540%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.581%vs—
Under 1.519%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.537%vs—
Under 3.563%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs—
No44%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Stade Brestois 29

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • N. Edjouma — out (Muscle Injury)
  • M. Balde — out (Injury)
  • J. Bourgault — out (Knee Injury)
  • M. Diambou — out (Ankle Injury)
  • B. Chardonnet — out (Calf Injury)
  • R. Cagnon — out (Shoulder Injury)
  • H. Magnetti — out (Muscle Injury)

Paris Saint Germain

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • Q. Ndjantou — out (Inactive)
  • A. Hakimi — out (Thigh Injury)
  • I. Zabarnyi — out (Coach's decision)
  • S. Mayulu — out (Inactive)
  • A. Longoni — out (Muscle Injury)
  • L. Digne — out (Inactive)
  • D. Doue — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
  • J. Neves — out (Illness)
  • N. Mendes — out (Red Card)
  • I. Mbaye — out (Inactive)
  • O. Dembele — out (Rest)
  • B. Barcola — out (Inactive)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Stade Brestois 29WDDDL

  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Le Havre 2–1
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Toulouse 2–2(xG 2.7–1.1)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Le Mans 2–2
  • Sun 17 May · H v Angers 1–1
  • Wed 13 May · H v Strasbourg 1–2

Paris Saint GermainLDDLW

  • Fri 4 Sep · H v Monaco 1–2
  • Fri 28 Aug · A v Lille 2–2(xG 1.3–1.1)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Rennes 2–2(xG 2.2–0.9)
  • Sun 17 May · A v Paris FC 1–2
  • Wed 13 May · A v Lens 2–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Stade Brestois 29
  • Stade Brestois 29 have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Stade Brestois 29 have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Stade Brestois 29's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of Stade Brestois 29's last 5.
  • Stade Brestois 29 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Paris Saint Germain have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Paris Saint Germain's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Paris Saint Germain's last 5.
  • Paris Saint Germain kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 10 meetings, Stade Brestois 29 have won 0, Paris Saint Germain 9, with 1 drawn.

Stade Brestois 29 W–D–L
0–1–9
Over 2.5
7 of 10
Both scored
6 of 10
  • Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Stade Brestois 29
  • Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint Germain
  • Stade Brestois 29 2–5 Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Stade Brestois 29
  • Paris Saint Germain 2–2 Stade Brestois 29
  • Stade Brestois 29 2–3 Paris Saint Germain
  • Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Stade Brestois 29
  • Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Stade Brestois 29
  • Stade Brestois 29 2–4 Paris Saint Germain

7Context

Stade Brestois 29

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Paris Saint Germain

Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d

Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest · Referee: Willy Delajod, France

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Stade Brestois 29's reported absences and doubts include N. Edjouma, M. Balde, J. Bourgault, M. Diambou and 3 others. Paris Saint Germain's include Q. Ndjantou, A. Hakimi, I. Zabarnyi, S. Mayulu and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Stade Brestois 29 line up in a 4-2-3-1, Paris Saint Germain in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain?
In their last 10 meetings, Stade Brestois 29 have won 0, Paris Saint Germain 9, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.