Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
LorientvToulouse
Lorient
Toulouse·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Lorient and Toulouse finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lor / Tou | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lorient down the side and Toulouse across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 29%.
What we think
- Lorient39% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lorient the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Lorient a 40% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 29% draw · 34% away
Now: 40% home · 29% draw · 32% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Lorient
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lorient
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Mbamba — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Fadiga — out (Injury)
- M. Bamba — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
Toulouse
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Nicolaisen — out (Calf Injury)
- G. Restes — out (Injury)
- Y. Gboho — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Donnum — out (Personal Reasons)
- N. Sigur — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Vossah — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Francis — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LorientWLDLW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Lens 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Estac Troyes 1–2(xG 1.1–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nice 0–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Le Havre 0–2
- Sun 10 May · A v Metz 4–0
ToulouseLDLDW
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Lille 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Stade Brestois 29 2–2(xG 1.1–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Lyon 0–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Nantes 0–0
- Sun 10 May · H v Lyon 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lorient have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lorient have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lorient's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lorient's last 5.
- Lorient kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Toulouse have won 1 of their last 5.
- Toulouse have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Toulouse's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Toulouse's last 5.
- Toulouse kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Lorient have won 0, Toulouse 3, with 3 drawn.
- Lorient W–D–L
- 0–3–3
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 6
- Both scored
- 4 of 6
- Toulouse 1–0 Lorient
- Lorient 1–1 Toulouse
- Lorient 1–2 Toulouse
- Toulouse 1–1 Lorient
- Lorient 0–1 Toulouse
- Toulouse 2–2 Lorient
7Context
Lorient
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Toulouse
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Yves Allainmat-Le Moustoir, Lorient · Referee: Aurelien Petit, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Lorient vs Toulouse?
- Our model makes Lorient the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Lorient vs Toulouse?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lorient vs Toulouse?
- Lorient's reported absences and doubts include N. Mbamba, B. Fadiga, M. Bamba. Toulouse's include R. Nicolaisen, G. Restes, Y. Gboho, A. Donnum and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lorient vs Toulouse?
- Lorient line up in a 3-4-2-1, Toulouse in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Toulouse?
- In their last 6 meetings, Lorient have won 0, Toulouse 3, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.