Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
Paris FCvLyon
Paris FC
Lyon·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Paris FC and Lyon finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Par / Lyo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Paris FC down the side and Lyon across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 39%.
What we think
- Lyon41% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lyon the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Paris FC the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, which is what the market has it at too (61%).
For comparison, the market gives Paris FC a 38% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 26% draw · 37% away
Now: 38% home · 26% draw · 37% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Paris FC
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Paris FC
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. De Smet — out (Inactive)
- E. Mbemba — out (Inactive)
- J. Ikone — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Otavio — out (Injury)
- L. Koleosho — out (Injury)
- N. Sangui — out (Injury)
Lyon
Confirmed · 4-3-2-1
- R. Kluivert — out (Inactive)
- N. Tagliafico — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. de Carvalho — out (Inactive)
- M. Ouedraogo — out (Inactive)
- K. Nakamura — out (Coach's decision)
- S. Kango — out (Inactive)
- A. Hamdani — out (Inactive)
- A. Gomes Rodriguez — out (Inactive)
- J. Duranville — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Niakhate — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Merah — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Maitland-Niles — out (Rest)
- Abner Vinicius — out (Rest)
- N. Kamara — out (Inactive)
- R. Himbert — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Paris FCWWDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Marseille 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Nice 3–0(xG 2.7–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Estac Troyes 0–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Rennes 1–2
LyonWDWLL
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Auxerre 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Le Havre 1–1(xG 1.7–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Toulouse 2–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Lens 0–4
- Sun 10 May · A v Toulouse 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Paris FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Paris FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Paris FC's last 5.
- Paris FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lyon have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Lyon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lyon's last 5.
- Lyon kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Paris FC have won 0, Lyon 0, with 2 drawn.
- Paris FC W–D–L
- 0–2–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Lyon 1–1 Paris FC
- Paris FC 3–3 Lyon
7Context
Paris FC
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lyon
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Jean Bouin, Paris · Referee: Jérôme Brisard, France
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Paris FC vs Lyon?
- Our model makes Lyon the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Paris FC at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in Paris FC vs Lyon?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Lyon?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Paris FC vs Lyon?
- Paris FC's reported absences and doubts include T. De Smet, E. Mbemba, J. Ikone, Otavio and 2 others. Lyon's include R. Kluivert, N. Tagliafico, M. de Carvalho, M. Ouedraogo and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Paris FC vs Lyon?
- Paris FC line up in a 3-4-2-1, Lyon in a 4-3-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Lyon?
- In their last 2 meetings, Paris FC have won 0, Lyon 0, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.