Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4

AuxerrevNice

·

1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–01.2–1.2 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Auxerre and Nice finish on some other score 66% of the time.

Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.

Probability of each scoreline, Auxerre goals down the side, Nice across
Aux / Nic012345
0910630.80.2
11014830.90.2
278520.60.1
33320.80.20.1
40.810.60.20.10.0
50.20.20.10.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Auxerre down the side and Nice across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 74%, market 74%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 50%, market 50%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 27%, market 28%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 28%.

What we think

  • Auxerre36% · Match result
  • Under 2.550% · Goals
  • Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Auxerre the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Nice the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).

For comparison, the market gives Nice a 38% chance. Our model makes it 35%.

NiceModel 35% [27%–42%]Market 38%
Nice:, our forecast 35%, between 27% and 42%, market 38%

2Market

Open: 37% home · 28% draw · 34% away

Now: 33% home · 29% draw · 38% away

Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Auxerre

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home36%vs33%+3pp
Draw29%vs29%0pp
Away35%vs38%−3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.550%vs50%0pp
Under 2.550%vs50%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs74%0pp
Under 1.526%vs26%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.527%vs28%−1pp
Under 3.573%vs72%+1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs56%−3pp
No47%vs44%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Auxerre

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • T. Siwe — out (Muscle Injury)
  • A. Tuanzebe — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • F. Oppegard — out (Illness)
  • S. Fofana — out (Groin Injury)
  • E. Legros — doubtful (Injury)
  • R. Labeau Lascary — out (Loan agreement)
  • T. Bair — out (Suspended)
  • Wei Xiangxin — out (Inactive)
  • F. Sierralta — out (Injury)
  • M. Senaya — out (Injury)
  • B. Okoh — out (Knee Injury)
  • C. Makosso — out (Red Card)
  • A. Diousse — out (Knee Injury)

Nice

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • A. Mendy — out (Knee Injury)
  • H. Boudaoui — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • M. Amoura — out (Thigh Injury)
  • M. Sanson — out (Surgery)
  • A. Abdi — out (Surgery)
  • A. Witsel — out (Inactive)
  • T. Moffi — out (Inactive)
  • M. Bombito — out (Leg Injury)
  • L. Abergel — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AuxerreLLLWW

  • Fri 4 Sep · A v Lyon 1–3
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Angers 1–3(xG 1.3–1.6)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Lens 2–5
  • Sun 17 May · A v Lille 2–0
  • Sun 10 May · H v Nice 2–1

NiceDLDWD

  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Le Mans 1–1
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Paris FC 0–3(xG 0.6–2.7)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Lorient 0–0
  • Fri 29 May · H v Saint Etienne 4–1
  • Tue 26 May · A v Saint Etienne 0–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Auxerre
  • Auxerre have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Auxerre have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Auxerre's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Auxerre's last 5.
  • Auxerre kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Nice
  • Nice have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Nice have scored in 2 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Nice's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Nice's last 5.
  • Nice kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 6 meetings, Auxerre have won 2, Nice 1, with 3 drawn.

Auxerre W–D–L
2–3–1
Over 2.5
3 of 6
Both scored
6 of 6
  • Auxerre 2–1 Nice
  • Nice 3–1 Auxerre
  • Nice 1–1 Auxerre
  • Auxerre 2–1 Nice
  • Nice 1–1 Auxerre
  • Auxerre 1–1 Nice

7Context

Auxerre

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Nice

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre · Referee: François Letexier, France

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win Auxerre vs Nice?
Our model makes Auxerre the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time. The market instead favours Nice at 38%.
How many goals are expected in Auxerre vs Nice?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nice?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Auxerre vs Nice?
Auxerre's reported absences and doubts include T. Siwe, A. Tuanzebe, F. Oppegard, S. Fofana and 9 others. Nice's include A. Mendy, H. Boudaoui, M. Amoura, M. Sanson and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Auxerre vs Nice?
Auxerre line up in a 4-2-3-1, Nice in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
In their last 6 meetings, Auxerre have won 2, Nice 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.