Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
StrasbourgvMonaco
Strasbourg
Monaco·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Strasbourg and Monaco finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Str / Mon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Strasbourg down the side and Monaco across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 64% against 62%.
What we think
- Strasbourg42% · Match result
- Over 2.564% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Strasbourg the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Monaco the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 29%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 64%, which is what the market has it at too (62%).
For comparison, the market gives Monaco a 47% chance. Our model makes it 35%.
2Market
Open: 30% home · 25% draw · 44% away
Now: 29% home · 24% draw · 47% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Monaco
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Strasbourg
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Oyedele — out (Injury)
- I. Doukoure — out (Injury)
- M. Godo — out (Muscle Injury)
- Oso — out (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Panichelli — out (Knee Injury)
- S. El Mourabet — out (Red Card)
- B. Chilwell — out (Hamstring Injury)
Monaco
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. Minamino — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Teze — out (Injury)
- A. Soubeir — out (Injury)
- S. Idumbo — out (Groin Injury)
- M. Biereth — out (Inactive)
- M. Coulibaly — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Fati — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Salisu — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Mawissa — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Diop — out (Injury)
- F. Balogun — out (Injury)
- M. Abline — out (Foot Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
StrasbourgWWLWW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Estac Troyes 6–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Lens 2–1(xG 1.7–2.9)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Marseille 0–4
- Sun 17 May · H v Monaco 5–4
- Wed 13 May · A v Stade Brestois 29 2–1
MonacoWWWLL
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Paris Saint Germain 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Marseille 2–0(xG 1.5–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Le Havre 1–0(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sun 17 May · A v Strasbourg 4–5
- Sun 10 May · H v Lille 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Strasbourg have won 4 of their last 5.
- Strasbourg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Strasbourg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Strasbourg's last 5.
- Strasbourg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Monaco have won 3 of their last 5.
- Monaco have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Monaco's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Monaco's last 5.
- Monaco kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Strasbourg have won 2, Monaco 6, with 2 drawn.
- Strasbourg W–D–L
- 2–2–6
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Strasbourg 5–4 Monaco
- Monaco 3–2 Strasbourg
- Monaco 0–0 Strasbourg
- Strasbourg 1–3 Monaco
- Strasbourg 0–1 Monaco
- Monaco 3–0 Strasbourg
- Monaco 4–3 Strasbourg
- Strasbourg 1–2 Monaco
- Strasbourg 1–0 Monaco
- Monaco 1–1 Strasbourg
7Context
Strasbourg
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Monaco
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg · Referee: Eric Wattellier, France
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Strasbourg vs Monaco?
- Our model makes Strasbourg the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market instead favours Monaco at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 64%, and under 2.5 at 36%.
- Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
- Strasbourg's reported absences and doubts include M. Oyedele, I. Doukoure, M. Godo, Oso and 3 others. Monaco's include T. Minamino, J. Teze, A. Soubeir, S. Idumbo and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
- Strasbourg line up in a 4-2-3-1, Monaco in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Monaco?
- In their last 10 meetings, Strasbourg have won 2, Monaco 6, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.