Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3
RB LeipzigvHamburger SV
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV·
5 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV finish on some other score 73% of the time.
| RB / Ham | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, RB Leipzig down the side and Hamburger SV across. These 96.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 39% against 51%.
What we think
- RB Leipzig64% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 61% against a market price of 49% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 3.5 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 2 meetings averaged 3.0 goals.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 8 for RB Leipzig, 7 for Hamburger SV.
Our forecast makes RB Leipzig the most likely of the three results, at 64% (we would not be surprised by anything from 58% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 64% this result does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 73%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, against the market’s 72% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives RB Leipzig a 73% chance. Our model makes it 64%.
2Market
Open: 72% home · 17% draw · 11% away
Now: 73% home · 16% draw · 11% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
RB Leipzig
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- M. Guiu — out (Hamstring Injury)
- O. Nyland — out (Foot Injury)
- Romulo Cardoso — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Gruda — out (Ankle Injury)
- V. Gebel — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Reitz — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Ouedraogo — out (Shoulder Injury)
- C. Baumgartner — out (Thigh Injury)
Hamburger SV
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- M. Vuskovic — out (Doping)
- S. Bornauw — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Amoako — out (Illness)
- M. Muheim — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. S. Lokonga — doubtful (Back Injury)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit — out (Ankle Injury)
- W. Omari — out (Personal Reasons)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RB LeipzigLWLWL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Werder Bremen 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0(xG 4.0–0.9)
- Sat 16 May · A v SC Freiburg 1–4
- Sat 9 May · H v FC St. Pauli 2–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Bayer Leverkusen 1–4
Hamburger SVLLDWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FSV Mainz 05 0–5
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–2(xG 0.7–1.4)
- Sat 16 May · A v Bayer Leverkusen 1–1
- Sun 10 May · H v SC Freiburg 3–2
- Sat 2 May · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 5.
- RB Leipzig have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of RB Leipzig's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of RB Leipzig's last 5.
- RB Leipzig kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Hamburger SV have won 2 of their last 5.
- Hamburger SV have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Hamburger SV's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Hamburger SV's last 5.
- Hamburger SV kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, RB Leipzig have won 2, Hamburger SV 0, with 0 drawn.
- RB Leipzig W–D–L
- 2–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Hamburger SV 1–2 RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig 2–1 Hamburger SV
7Context
RB Leipzig
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Hamburger SV
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Florian Badstubner, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
- Our model makes RB Leipzig the most likely result at 64%. Most likely is not likely — at 64% it does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 73%.
- How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
- RB Leipzig's reported absences and doubts include M. Guiu, O. Nyland, Romulo Cardoso, B. Gruda and 4 others. Hamburger SV's include M. Vuskovic, S. Bornauw, K. Amoako, M. Muheim and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
- RB Leipzig line up in a 4-3-3, Hamburger SV in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV?
- In their last 2 meetings, RB Leipzig have won 2, Hamburger SV 0, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.