Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3

SV ElversbergvBayern München

·

1 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.1–3.0 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–2 (8%), then 1-3 (8%), 0-2 (7%). SV Elversberg and Bayern München finish on some other score 76% of the time.

Probability of each scoreline, SV Elversberg goals down the side, Bayern München across
SV / Bay012345
0257753
1268864
2135532
30.412210.8
40.10.30.50.50.40.2
50.00.10.10.10.10.1

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, SV Elversberg down the side and Bayern München across. These 91.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 8.3% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 87%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 72%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 48%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Bayern München74% · Match result
  • Over 2.572% · Goals
  • Yes60% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Bayern München the most likely of the three results, at 74% (we would not be surprised by anything from 66% to 82%). Most likely is not likely: at 74% this result does not happen 26% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 72%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home11%vs—
Draw14%vs—
Away74%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.572%vs—
Under 2.528%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.587%vs—
Under 1.513%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.548%vs—
Under 3.552%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes60%vs—
No40%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

SV Elversberg

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • T. Zimmerschied — out (Back Injury)
  • L. Seifert — out (Ankle Injury)

Bayern München

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • S. Gnabry — out (Muscle Injury)
  • J. Musiala — out (Health problems)
  • T. Buchmann — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

SV ElversbergWWLD

  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–2(xG 1.1–1.9)
  • Mon 26 May · H v FC Heidenheim 1–2
  • Thu 22 May · A v FC Heidenheim 2–2

Bayern MünchenDWWWD

  • Sat 5 Sep · A v FC Schalke 04 0–0
  • Fri 28 Aug · H v VfB Stuttgart 5–1(xG 3.9–0.9)
  • Sat 16 May · H v 1. FC Köln 5–1
  • Sat 9 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 1–0
  • Sat 2 May · H v FC Heidenheim 3–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

SV Elversberg
  • SV Elversberg have won 2 of their last 4.
  • SV Elversberg have scored in 4 of their last 4.
  • 4 of SV Elversberg's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of SV Elversberg's last 4.
  • SV Elversberg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
Bayern München
  • Bayern München have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Bayern München have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Bayern München's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Bayern München's last 5.
  • Bayern München kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

SV Elversberg

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Bayern München

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Sascha Stegemann, Germany

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win SV Elversberg vs Bayern München?
Our model makes Bayern München the most likely result at 74%. Most likely is not likely — at 74% it does not happen 26% of the time.
How many goals are expected in SV Elversberg vs Bayern München?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 72%, and under 2.5 at 28%.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Bayern München?
Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for SV Elversberg vs Bayern München?
SV Elversberg's reported absences and doubts include T. Zimmerschied, L. Seifert. Bayern München's include S. Gnabry, J. Musiala, T. Buchmann. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for SV Elversberg vs Bayern München?
SV Elversberg line up in a 4-2-3-1, Bayern München in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.