Serie A · Regular Season - 4
SassuolovJuventus
Sassuolo
Juventus·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.0–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Sassuolo and Juventus finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Sas / Juv | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sassuolo down the side and Juventus across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 77% against 78%.
What we think
- Juventus55% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Juventus the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (53%).
For comparison, the market gives Juventus a 59% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 17% home · 24% draw · 59% away
Now: 17% home · 24% draw · 59% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sassuolo
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Idzes — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Bakola — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- C. Volpato — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Walukiewicz — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Pinamonti — out (Injury)
- E. Pieragnolo — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Paz — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Kone — out (Broken Leg)
- F. Cande — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Boloca — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Berardi — out (Ankle Injury)
Juventus
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Grabara — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Locatelli — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Boga — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Zhegrova — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. M. Sarr — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Milik — out (Inactive)
- W. McKennie — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Cambiaso — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Cabal — out (Thigh Injury)
- F. Gatti — out (Injury)
- J. Ekhator — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Di Gregorio — out (Transfer negotiations)
- K. Yildiz — out (Foot Injury)
- K. Thuram — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SassuoloDWLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Bologna 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Torino 2–1(xG 1.1–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atalanta 1–2(xG 2.7–0.9)
- Sun 24 May · A v Parma 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Lecce 2–3
JuventusDWWDL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v AC Milan 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Parma 2–0(xG 1.7–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Frosinone 1–0(xG 2.2–0.4)
- Sun 24 May · A v Torino 2–2
- Sun 17 May · H v Fiorentina 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sassuolo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sassuolo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sassuolo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sassuolo's last 5.
- Sassuolo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Juventus have won 2 of their last 5.
- Juventus have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Juventus's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Juventus's last 5.
- Juventus kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Sassuolo have won 3, Juventus 4, with 1 drawn.
- Sassuolo W–D–L
- 3–1–4
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 8
- Both scored
- 4 of 8
- Juventus 1–1 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 0–3 Juventus
- Juventus 3–0 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 4–2 Juventus
- Sassuolo 1–0 Juventus
- Juventus 3–0 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 1–2 Juventus
- Juventus 1–2 Sassuolo
7Context
Sassuolo
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Juventus
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia · Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Sassuolo vs Juventus?
- Our model makes Juventus the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- How many goals are expected in Sassuolo vs Juventus?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Juventus?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sassuolo vs Juventus?
- Sassuolo's reported absences and doubts include J. Idzes, D. Bakola, C. Volpato, S. Walukiewicz and 7 others. Juventus's include K. Grabara, M. Locatelli, J. Boga, E. Zhegrova and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sassuolo vs Juventus?
- Sassuolo line up in a 4-3-3, Juventus in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Juventus?
- In their last 8 meetings, Sassuolo have won 3, Juventus 4, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.