Serie A · Regular Season - 4
NapolivBologna
Napoli
Bologna·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.6–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Napoli and Bologna finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Nap / Bol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Napoli down the side and Bologna across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 74% against 75%.
What we think
- Napoli52% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Napoli the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Napoli a 52% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 52% home · 26% draw · 22% away
Now: 52% home · 26% draw · 22% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Napoli
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- L. Spinazzola — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Meret — out (Muscle Injury)
- Alisson Santos — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Anguissa — out (Muscle Injury)
- Giovane — out (Groin Injury)
- B. Badiashile — doubtful (Lacking Match Fitness)
- S. McTominay — out (Heart Problems)
- P. Mazzocchi — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Marianucci — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Folorunsho — out (Inactive)
- A. Buongiorno — out (Knee Injury)
Bologna
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- N. Zortea — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Dovbyk — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Orsolini — out (Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- O. El Azzouzi — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Casale — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NapoliLLWWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Inter 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Como 1–2(xG 1.4–1.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Genoa 2–0
- Sun 24 May · H v Udinese 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Pisa 3–0
BolognaDLLDW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Sassuolo 2–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Atalanta 0–1(xG 1.4–0.2)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Lazio 0–1(xG 1.8–0.6)
- Sat 23 May · H v Inter 3–3
- Sun 17 May · A v Atalanta 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Napoli have won 3 of their last 5.
- Napoli have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Napoli's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Napoli's last 5.
- Napoli kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Bologna have won 1 of their last 5.
- Bologna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Bologna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Bologna's last 5.
- Bologna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Napoli have won 4, Bologna 3, with 3 drawn.
- Napoli W–D–L
- 4–3–3
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Napoli 2–3 Bologna
- Bologna 2–0 Napoli
- Bologna 1–1 Napoli
- Napoli 3–0 Bologna
- Napoli 0–2 Bologna
- Bologna 0–0 Napoli
- Bologna 2–2 Napoli
- Napoli 3–2 Bologna
- Bologna 0–2 Napoli
- Napoli 3–0 Bologna
7Context
Napoli
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bologna
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · Referee: Kevin Bonacina, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Napoli vs Bologna?
- Our model makes Napoli the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in Napoli vs Bologna?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Napoli vs Bologna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Napoli vs Bologna?
- Napoli's reported absences and doubts include L. Spinazzola, A. Meret, Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa and 7 others. Bologna's include N. Zortea, A. Dovbyk, R. Orsolini, J. Rowe and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Napoli vs Bologna?
- Napoli line up in a 4-3-3, Bologna in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
- In their last 10 meetings, Napoli have won 4, Bologna 3, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.