Serie A · Regular Season - 4
LeccevMonza
Lecce
Monza·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Lecce and Monza finish on some other score 60% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Lec / Mon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lecce down the side and Monza across. These 99.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 45% against 41%.
What we think
- Monza35% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Monza the most likely of the three results, at 35% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 42%). Most likely is not likely: at 35% this result does not happen 65% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Lecce the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 34%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, against the market’s 41% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Lecce a 35% chance. Our model makes it 33%.
2Market
Open: 35% home · 31% draw · 34% away
Now: 35% home · 31% draw · 34% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lecce
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- M. Berisha — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- Tiago Gabriel — out (Injury)
- W. Geubbels — out (Ankle Injury)
- O. Gandelman — out (Inactive)
- L. Banda — out (Inactive)
- A. Gallo — doubtful (Injury)
Monza
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- I. Toure — out (Contusion)
- C. Ngonge — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Ziolkowski — out (Foot Injury)
- P. Ciurria — out (Inactive)
- G. Varela — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Zeballos — doubtful (Inactive)
- D. Thiam — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Pessina — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Mota — out (Suspended)
- L. Colombo — out (Injury)
- E. Akinsanmiro — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LecceLLWWW
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Cagliari 0–1
- Mon 31 Aug · H v AS Roma 0–4(xG 0.7–3.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Venezia 2–0(xG 2.7–2.0)
- Sun 24 May · H v Genoa 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Sassuolo 3–2
MonzaDLLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Parma 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Udinese 2–3(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Inter 1–4
- Sat 24 May · A v AC Milan 0–2
- Sun 18 May · H v Empoli 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lecce have won 3 of their last 5.
- Lecce have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lecce's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lecce's last 5.
- Lecce kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Monza have won 0 of their last 5.
- Monza have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Monza's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Monza's last 5.
- Monza kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Lecce have won 2, Monza 0, with 4 drawn.
- Lecce W–D–L
- 2–4–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 6
- Both scored
- 4 of 6
- Monza 0–0 Lecce
- Lecce 2–1 Monza
- Lecce 1–1 Monza
- Monza 1–1 Lecce
- Monza 0–1 Lecce
- Lecce 1–1 Monza
7Context
Lecce
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Monza
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Via del Mare, Lecce · Referee: Valerio Crezzini, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Lecce vs Monza?
- Our model makes Monza the most likely result at 35%. Most likely is not likely — at 35% it does not happen 65% of the time. The market instead favours Lecce at 35%.
- How many goals are expected in Lecce vs Monza?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Lecce vs Monza?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lecce vs Monza?
- Lecce's reported absences and doubts include M. Berisha, Tiago Gabriel, W. Geubbels, O. Gandelman and 2 others. Monza's include I. Toure, C. Ngonge, J. Ziolkowski, P. Ciurria and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lecce vs Monza?
- Lecce line up in a 4-3-3, Monza in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Monza?
- In their last 6 meetings, Lecce have won 2, Monza 0, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.