Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 8

Velez SarsfieldvEstudiantes L.P.

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1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Velez Sarsfield a 40% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Velez SarsfieldModel pendingMarket 40%
Velez Sarsfield:, no forecast published, market 40%

2Market

Open: 41% home · 32% draw · 27% away

Now: 40% home · 33% draw · 27% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs40%
Draw—vs33%
Away—vs27%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs33%
Under 2.5—vs67%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs60%
Under 1.5—vs40%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs14%
Under 3.5—vs86%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs41%
No—vs59%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Velez Sarsfield

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Estudiantes L.P.

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Velez SarsfieldDDDDW

  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Deportivo Riestra 1–1(xG 0.5–0.6)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v River Plate 2–2
  • Mon 17 Aug · H v Defensa Y Justicia 1–1
  • Sat 8 Aug · A v Boca Juniors 1–1
  • Mon 3 Aug · H v Independiente 1–0

Estudiantes L.P.DLWLL

  • Mon 31 Aug · H v Newells Old Boys 0–0(xG 2.2–1.1)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Sarmiento Junin 0–2
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v Gimnasia L.P. 4–0
  • Sat 8 Aug · A v Deportivo Riestra 0–2
  • Wed 5 Aug · A v Boca Juniors 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Velez Sarsfield
  • Velez Sarsfield have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Velez Sarsfield have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Velez Sarsfield's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Velez Sarsfield's last 5.
  • Velez Sarsfield kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Estudiantes L.P.
  • Estudiantes L.P. have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Estudiantes L.P. have scored in 1 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Estudiantes L.P.'s last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 0 of Estudiantes L.P.'s last 5.
  • Estudiantes L.P. kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.

Velez Sarsfield W–D–L
1–0–0
Over 2.5
0 of 1
Both scored
0 of 1
  • Estudiantes L.P. 0–1 Velez Sarsfield

7Context

Velez Sarsfield

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estudiantes L.P.

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires · Referee: P. Dovalo

8Red flags