Süper Lig · Regular Season - 6
Çorum FKvAlanyaspor
Çorum FK
Alanyaspor·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Çorum FK and Alanyaspor finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Çor / Ala | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Çorum FK down the side and Alanyaspor across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Çorum FK44% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Çorum FK the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Çorum FK
Lineup not yet confirmed
- C. Soyuncu — out (Injury)
- A. Kyziridis — out (Red Card)
- S. Osmanoglu — out (Injury)
Alanyaspor
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Maestro — out (Thigh Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Çorum FKWWLLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Samsunspor 5–1(xG 1.5–0.9)
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Eyüpspor 3–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Beşiktaş 2–6(xG 0.6–2.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Kasımpaşa 0–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Galatasaray 2–2
AlanyasporDWLWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Göztepe 2–2(xG 1.7–1.7)
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Rizespor 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Eyüpspor 1–2(xG 0.7–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Beşiktaş 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Gaziantep FK 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Çorum FK have won 2 of their last 5.
- Çorum FK have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Çorum FK's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Çorum FK's last 5.
- Çorum FK kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Alanyaspor have won 2 of their last 5.
- Alanyaspor have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Alanyaspor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Alanyaspor's last 5.
- Alanyaspor kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Çorum FK
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Alanyaspor
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Corum Stadyumu, Corum · Referee: A. Akarsu
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
- Our model makes Çorum FK the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
- Çorum FK's reported absences and doubts include C. Soyuncu, A. Kyziridis, S. Osmanoglu. Alanyaspor's include Maestro. Each player's status is in the availability section above.